Mike KonczalVerifisert konto

@rortybomb

Director of Macroeconomic Analysis . Writer . Book FREEDOM FROM THE MARKET . Tired new dad. 🍞🌹

DC/MD
mikekonczal.com
Registrerte seg juni 2009
778 bilder og videoer Bilder og videoer

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  1. Festet tweet
    15. jun.

    The coming recovery could be remembered as the birth of a dynamic, more egalitarian U.S. economy. We just have to avoid getting spooked by the bumps along the way. Manage the economic boom, don’t fight it. New marker being put down by me and .

    15 svar 89 retweets 295 liker
    Angre
  2. Retweetet
    for 8 timer siden

    🥳🥳

    BREAKING: Bye, single family zoning in California. Governor Gavin Newsom has signed SB9, making duplexes legal on any lot zoned for one house statewide. He also signed SB10 making it easier for cities to approve small apartment buildings in single family neighborhoods.
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    14 svar 64 retweets 1 088 liker
    Angre
  3. Retweetet
    16. sep.

    Great explainer on the real source of sticker-shock at the grocery store: big beef. Four big meatpacking companies have chewed up the competition and have consumers and ranchers over a barrel. This isn't inflation, it's price fixing.

    4:23
    NEW: Republicans and corporate media want you to believe that inflation is driving skyrocketing grocery prices. They’re wrong. It’s actually corporate profiteering. Four meatpacking giants are using monopoly control to make record profits at consumers’ and ranchers’ expense.
    4 svar 71 retweets 149 liker
    Angre
  4. Retweetet
    15. sep.

    NEW: offers central ways to instill accountability and prevent corporate capture in the reconciliation and infrastructure bills—and future public investments.

    4 retweets 3 liker
    Angre
  5. for 18 timer siden

    It's just being abandoned by centrists. Given that the ACA repeal was deeply unpopular and yet abandoning it didn't save the GOP in the midterms, I have to imagine being seen abandoning the far, far more popular drug price reform policy will hurt more in the next midterms.

    2 svar 2 retweets 13 liker
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    Angre
  6. for 18 timer siden

    In 2017, GOP couldn't deliver on their central promise of replacing the ACA because their policy from the out years ("repeal and delay") was unworkable, and there was no back-up consensus plan. Here, however, the Dem's central promise was already the workable, back-up consensus.

    An important thing to note is that HR3 (drug price reform) was the compromise. This was fought over during all of 2019, a huge fight. Final version got buy-in from the whole caucus. Everyone ran on it. The 3 pharma lovers who blocked it today *voted for it*.
    1 svar 3 retweets 22 liker
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    Angre
  7. Retweetet
    16. sep.

    the best full employment message i’ve seen yet. the next episode of the weeds is just going to be me explaining this tiktok frame by frame.

    4 svar 38 retweets 306 liker
    Angre
  8. Retweetet
    14. sep.

    Asked about what he makes of Sen. Manchin’s comment that CTC should have a work requirement tells me “I think that raising children is work.”

    252 svar 2 582 retweets 22 950 liker
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    Angre
  9. Retweetet
    14. sep.

    The Federal Reserve's 2011 "Tealbook" of staff economic estimates contains an entire aside on whether they're misestimating the natural rate of unemployment. Not that their 5.25% estimate could be too high, but that it might be too LOW!

    3 svar 7 retweets 33 liker
    Angre
  10. Retweetet
    14. sep.

    Absolutely incredible: Census says poverty rate **fell** in 2020 ***during one of the worst labor market shocks in US history***, due to the combo of stimulus checks/federal relief that reached millions both in and outside the workforce. Reflects limits of jobs to reduce poverty.

    3. The Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) extends the official poverty measure to include the value of noncash benefits, stimulus payments, taxes, and other necessary expenses. The SPM rate in 2020 was 9.1 percent. This was 2.6 percentage points lower than 2019.
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    261 svar 4 321 retweets 17 073 liker
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    Angre
  11. Retweetet
    14. sep.

    This was well understood by anyone paying attention last yr, the massive scale of the assistance in 2020 was larger than the labor market losses. Overall the poverty rate reached a record low in 2020. It will be even lower in 2021, but will bounce back somewhat in 2022.

    3. The Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) extends the official poverty measure to include the value of noncash benefits, stimulus payments, taxes, and other necessary expenses. The SPM rate in 2020 was 9.1 percent. This was 2.6 percentage points lower than 2019.
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    4 svar 3 retweets 37 liker
    Angre
  12. Retweetet
    14. sep.

    Non-managerial workers saw significant real wage gains during COVID. They aren't reversing, either.

    5 svar 15 retweets 63 liker
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    Angre
  13. Retweetet
    14. sep.

    Shelter/OER not accelerating too much (yet) is a bigger deal & win for Team Transitory than the Delta-drivers of downside surprise in core (airfares, hotels)

    5 svar 8 retweets 51 liker
    Angre
  14. 14. sep.

    What can and should happen next needs careful consideration. But watch for the people who spent the last six months screaming about “worst macro in 40 years” and cascading price increases now say that their concern was really ‘whether FAIT level happens before 2023’ all along.

    3 retweets 33 liker
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    Angre
  15. 14. sep.

    Love how the Discourse changes on a dime. UI is causing a labor shortage! <natural experiment removing half of UI finds no such thing> real wages aren’t increasing! Inflation expectations are unanchoring! <transitory sectoral inflation levels out> but when will it be 2% YoY!?!

    4 svar 19 retweets 161 liker
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    Angre
  16. Retweetet
    14. sep.

    Miss was driven by reversal of used cars/trucks and airline tickets...looks like hotels weighed on shelter too. Details in a sec.

    1 svar 17 retweets 82 liker
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    Angre
  17. Retweetet
    14. sep.

    Core CPI comes in cooler than expected. Just up 0.1% MOM vs. 0.3% expected. Up 4.0% YOY vs. 4.2% expected.

    12 svar 63 retweets 221 liker
    Angre
  18. Retweetet
    13. sep.

    Thread (of threads) on markup of tax proposals. A big step forward today on raising revenues in a way that would make the tax code more equitable and support needed investments in infrastructure and people. But, still some big steps left to take. Lots to digest:

    2 svar 6 retweets 15 liker
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    Angre
  19. Retweetet
    13. sep.

    Is this a thing? I just crumbled some leftover nutty crackers into the remains of some Special K and the effect … the effect, my friends, is rather stunning. All of a sudden the bland over-sweet Kellogs cereal has a rich nutty, even peppery flavor.

    41 svar 22 retweets 245 liker
    Angre
  20. 13. sep.

    I still remember when *the* major scandal on parts of the left was that Carnival Cruises didn't have to turn to private equity and vulture funds offering terrible rates and conditions. Having to make the case that preventing this looting was a good thing was a really weird time!

    4 svar 4 retweets 80 liker
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    Angre
  21. 13. sep.

    Jay Powell broke a capital strike. The financing public option that was the SMCCF prevented private equity and vulture funds from controlling who'd survive the immediate panic in March, and ensured the real economy had credit conditions to make it through 2020. Rest now, SMCCF.

    As of August 31, all of the corporate bonds and ETFs that the Fed purchased last year have either matured or been sold
    5 svar 57 retweets 292 liker
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