Isn't it also a bit meaningless until we know where we stand in April anyway? If Brexit is delayed or we're perceived as in any way diverting from the HARD SUICIDE option favoured by so many then won't the UKIP vote potentially shoot upward?
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My guess is you're roughly right. Probably a new Brexit party will benefit. And if CU / soft Brexit is agreed then TIG will have a hard ceiling.
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And even with that labour miles behind
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My guess is Labour's numbers improve once the studio tour ends. But honestly I'd take an election 8 points behind - mass membership, greater motivation, widespread dissatisfaction with govt would soon close that. As will Brexit outcome.
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Same thing as in Greece, Ronan. And elsewhere, I suppose.
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Interesting note on this one is the TIG weren't named as an option (as they were in some of the other recent ones); this was a simple: "who will you vote for?" open question.
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Important because 'independent' is often taken as synonymous with 'AN Other'. In Ireland in recent years 'independent' regularly topped the polls as a protest vote, didn't translate in election.
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Their politics represent the space currently occupied by the lib dems. So they've got give or take, 10% to share between them
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Won’t stop the circle jerk
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.....and that's the figure that jumps out here??
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