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Prikvačeni tweet
We ran a few questions about constitutional attitudes in Wales in the latest
#WelshPoliticalBarometer poll with@YouGov and@ITVWales A brief thread on the results 1/13Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Roger Awan-Scully proslijedio/la je Tweet
sorry but Corbyn criticising Johnson for “shutting newspapers out of Number 10” is epic hypocrisy, his election battlebus was a no-go zone for almost all of us
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Roger Awan-Scully proslijedio/la je Tweet
"The fragility of the electoral system is more apparent than ever, the expectations of citizens are not being met and the resilience of the electoral community to deliver is being tested." Read our newly published post-election statement: http://bit.ly/AEAGE2019Report
#GE2019pic.twitter.com/gv9QfmOILa
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Roger Awan-Scully proslijedio/la je Tweet
New Sky Data poll: the British have little trust in Trump but Boris Johnson’s satisfaction rating is the highest for a PM in 2 and a half years:https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-post-election-honeymoon-for-boris-johnson-but-for-how-long-11926343 …
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Roger Awan-Scully proslijedio/la je Tweet
Overall though, as an outsider, the thing which struck me most was the tone/quality of the debate: Detailed, substantive and focussed on policy. Irish politics and discourse so much further behind the post-truth nightmare by comparison to British and American politics.
#GE2020
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Roger Awan-Scully proslijedio/la je Tweet
The Irish leaders’ debate is really quite shocking. The three leaders have a detailed grasp of complex welfare and tax issues, they are polite and courteous, they admit mistakes, they say sorry. They might even be largely honest. Why is all that possible in Ireland but not here?
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Roger Awan-Scully proslijedio/la je Tweet
Domestic violence kills 15 times as many as terrorism in Britainhttps://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/28/domestic-violence-kills-15-times-as-many-as-terrorism-in-britain …
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Roger Awan-Scully proslijedio/la je Tweet
KEYNOTE SPEAKER
We are delighted to announce that Professor Stefano Bartolini will be one of our keynote speakers
at our Annual International Conference in Edinburgh.
April 6-8
Find out more below
#PSA20 https://psa.ac.uk/psa20 pic.twitter.com/AbKUjG5ON1
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Roger Awan-Scully proslijedio/la je Tweet
What better example of the shifting sands of Scottish opinion than Murray Foote, once architect of the infamous Vow, now working with the SNP as their comms chief.
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Roger Awan-Scully proslijedio/la je Tweet
Wales: On this question format, support for independence is at a record high. But’s it’s still lower than both scrapping the Welsh Assembly and don’t know. Status quo the most popular of these options.https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1224610733897519104 …
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Roger Awan-Scully proslijedio/la je Tweet
This relationship can be seen pretty clearly in this graph from our working paper (interactive version in link) using 2016 Welsh Election Study data https://www.jaclarner.com/single-post/2020/02/04/Constitutional-Wishful-Thinking … https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1224610743229861890 …pic.twitter.com/leAHG1kWTU
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Overall, our new Barometer poll suggests: - Some rise in support for Welsh independence - Support for independence in Wales still lower than for abolishing the Assembly - Support for both still well below support for devolution - But lots of 'wishful thinking'! 13/13
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People wanting greater political autonomy for Wales tend to think we have gone some way towards that; those wanting little or none tend to downplay the extent of devolution thus far. This suggests substantial 'wishful thinking' in Wales on devolved government... 12/13
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This is in line with some work I have done with
@Jaclarner and which we have tested across various slightly different question formats and question orderings (and also replicated in Scotland, although with a slightly weaker correlation there)... 11/13Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
However, there is an interesting relationship between perceptions in Wales of where things are and how they would like to see Wales being governed. There is a *very* strong positive correlation between the two measures (r = .78) 10/13
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'Things as they are right now': Mean Average: 47 Median: 49 'How you would like to see Wales being governed' Mean average: 52 Median: 51 9/13
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We also asked people to place 'things as they are right now' and 'how you would like to see Wales being governed' on a 0-100 scale, where 0 means 'no devolution at all', and 100 means 'complete political independence for Wales'... 8/13
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Across both question formats: - Support for independence higher than in previous recent polls - Support for abolition higher than support for independence - Support for status quo higher than support for either abolition or independence 7/13
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On the simple yes/no questions: Independence: Yes: 21% No: 56% Would Not Vote: 8% Don't Know: 12% Refused: 3% Abolition: Yes: 24% No: 47% Would Not Vote: 8% Don't Know: 17% Refused: 4% 6/13
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This is the highest level of support for independence in any poll using this multi-option that I can recall; certainly the highest that we have seen in any Barometer poll. But such support is still a little lower than support for abolition. 5/13
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