Would you endorse choosing policy to max the expected duration of civilization, at least as a good first approximation?
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Agreed, but to be precise, total prosperity is strictly harder to measure than longevity, right? Because total prosperity is basically momentary prosperity x longevity
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"Would you endorse putting much higher weight on the expected duration of civilization in choosing policy?"
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Well if that gets more votes could get even more for propose to increase weight just a bit.
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How about having multiple civilizations running in parallel rather in serial? The longevity of a suboptimal universal solution is not a great option.
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Maximize utility? Make everyone as happy as possible? Minimize suffering? Eliminate Poverty?
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Utilitarian Value; to where the longevity policy can be re-examined under a scope of feasibility within exsiitng structures of civilization. Thus, removing the 'Nuclear Option' from sustainability arguments.
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Assuming I'm advising a tribal leader around 5000 BC and any policy I suggest needs to be understandable to him/her, maximizing life expectancy is hard to beat. Lindy rule rules and rulers rule by Lindy rule!
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maximizing QALYs?
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