How about inverse probability, i.e. what is the probability of X given Y?
When people hear someone say "If X, then likely Y", they mostly infer that the speaker thinks "X is likely." Explicit denials matter little.
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"If X, then Y likely" = "P(Y|X) in likely"
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and when you say 'mostly infer' ---> you mean most infer? poverty causes crime ---> poverty is common(er)?
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I meant X to be a claim that could be true or false about the world.
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i got that. i was just clarifying for myself what you meant. i need to think more but what you say seems plausible.
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Worse. People often infer "X and Y are *both* good!" Eg, when X or Y about Trump. Response always: why are you saying Trump is good?
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Suspect what happens is saying anything "likely" is immediately misunderstand as euphemism for "desirable"
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That or they interrupt as you're saying it. "If X . . ." "But not X" "Perhaps not, but if X . . ." "But not X"
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a new psych. bias? people imputing based on how common Y is? people thinking relation b/w X and Y large --- when 'likely' is a weasel word?
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If set of 'not X' >> set of X, seems reasonable to infer speaker's choice of conditioning on X implies speaker's confidence X will obtain.
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of all the Ifs you could have mentioned, you mentioned X. in social situations it is reasonable to infer you think X is special
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and im not sure they *mostly* infer it. they usu just infer that you'd prefer if X happened, or you'd prefer to evoke the reaction of Xideas
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otoh, if they do mostly infer the speaker thinks X is likely, i'd blame other speakers for using "If X, then Y" statements that way
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Lotta studies [mostly on financial/economic decision making] agree: our intuitions regarding conditional probabilities generally fail us.
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