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Robin Hanson

@robinhanson

Oct 24, 2021

Trumps chance to be next President about same as Biden + Harris. 40% chance someone else.

Robin Hanson

@robinhanson

electionbettingodds.com

2:40 PM · Oct 24, 2021

Replying to

These odds seen ludicrously low on Biden especially. Base rate is that the incumbent is something like 90% to be renominated and then a favourite to win the general. Seems far too big an age update.