He calls ageofem.com "terribly bad prediction", & says to predict 2050 "incrementally", e.g, "city" on Mars, "nearly every imaginable thing … monetized & tokenized", & "total saturation of artistic content by AI"
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This sounds fallacious: "To see what I mean more specifically: 2050, that super futuristic year, is only 29 years out, so it is exactly the same as predicting what the world would look like today back in 1992."
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Well maybe you’ll both be right and his Martian City will in fact be an Em city/post physical death retirement home for copies of people etc living a virtual afterlife. People would pay for that I imagine.
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International wires existed back in 1992.
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I don’t think he grasps how nasty Mars is for humans.
I think when people die there in very unpleasant ways, it will sink in.
Weren’t people so excited about getting to the moon and after a few years most were “meh”
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He may be incremental, but he's cynical. He's only 33 years old, going on 60. "Never trust anyone over 30" Charlton Heston once said in the movie "Planet of the Apes". Indeed.
Correct predictions that *people actually made in 1992* are the right reference class for trying to make correct predictions now.
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"Honestly, to me this local intelligence explosion scenario looks suspiciously like a super-villain comic book plot."
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