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OH SHIT! I missed this when it out a year ago, but https://www.econlib.org/Prohibitions-mind_drugs_and_policy … pointed me to this key result: Per capita US drug deaths have steadily doubled every decade 4 times in a row, R^2=0.99! Even as particular drug death rates far from steady. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6408/eaau1184 …pic.twitter.com/4yvynZiaOV
I've long known that age-specific total death rates have fallen at steady exponential rates for a century, even as causes of death and health tech changes have been far from steady. Only slowed down lately, probably due to this faster drug death growth.
I predict trend will continue at least 1/2 as long as it has lasted so far. So drug deaths will double twice again over next 20 years. Seeing how crazy people are to blame drug firms now, they'll get even crazier w/ 4x death rates. Will be a terrible time to be a drug company.
This graph from here https://www.takimag.com/article/white_privilege_vs_white_death_steve_sailer/ … makes it seem like the trend started with cohorts born after 1945. Which suggest the trend has actually been going for ~55 years, which suggests it will continue for another ~3 decades, after which mortality will be ~8x higher!
Interestingly, this x2 doubling of mortality per decade is about the same as the within-a-lifetime aging rate. That is, individual mortality within a lifetime also doubles roughly every decade.
If you look at age cohort data, there's a sharp upturn in drug deaths among people born from about 1950 onward (i.e., graduated from high school in 1968 or later). Pre-Sixties people largely okay. A lot of the current White Death discovered by Case and Deaton is a Sixties Thing.
Okay, so maybe doubling trend started ~1970. But what could be causing it that fits with that start date?
I have no theories as to why this would be. Would someone care to explain this?
Hahaha! I've never actually read a swear word or any(?) short exclamations in any of your writing. I can barely process the information, just the sheer shock of it all...
Haha I was caught off guard too, but I like it!
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