Today humans and the orgs they control neglect the long run. But someday competition should select for units that take long views. From that day forward, future will no longer be neglected. Let us hasten that day, via more reliable long term planning. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/11/long-views-are-coming.html …
-
-
-
Replying to @necoleman
For the same reason short run planning is possible. You can generate possible plans, & evaluate them on good outcomes and ease of following.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @robinhanson
Tree of possible plans grows exponentially with time horizon; so the cost of long run planning is prohibitively expensive. Possible to build simpler models but not clear those models can usefully predict quantities of interest (status, happiness, wealth)
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Replying to @necoleman
I agree complexity makes longer term planning harder, all else equal. But this is not the only thing going on; short term preferences are also a real thing.
2:16 PM - 2 Nov 2018
0 replies
0 retweets
2 likes
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.