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robinhanson's profile
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Verified account
@robinhanson

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Robin HansonVerified account

@robinhanson

Let's skip witty repartee & position taking, & discuss enduring fundamental questions. (& my books: http://ageofem.com , http://elephantinthebrain.com )

Fairfax, VA
hanson.gmu.edu
Joined July 2007

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    Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2

    Today humans and the orgs they control neglect the long run. But someday competition should select for units that take long views. From that day forward, future will no longer be neglected. Let us hasten that day, via more reliable long term planning. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/11/long-views-are-coming.html …

    11:55 AM - 2 Nov 2018
    • 11 Retweets
    • 42 Likes
    • Dave Gulimlim Jotto999 William Mitchell Spark Rochelle Grober Susma hundredth idiot 🌲🏛 James back row guy Oliver James Bailey
    9 replies 11 retweets 42 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Neal Coleman‏ @necoleman Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Why is long-run planning possible?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @necoleman

        For the same reason short run planning is possible. You can generate possible plans, & evaluate them on good outcomes and ease of following.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Neal Coleman‏ @necoleman Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Tree of possible plans grows exponentially with time horizon; so the cost of long run planning is prohibitively expensive. Possible to build simpler models but not clear those models can usefully predict quantities of interest (status, happiness, wealth)

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @necoleman

        I agree complexity makes longer term planning harder, all else equal. But this is not the only thing going on; short term preferences are also a real thing.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. David M. Levinson‏ @trnsprtst Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        You know about Future Day, March 1? http://www.kurzweilai.net/future-day-a-new-global-holiday-march-1 …

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @trnsprtst

        Yes. That's a day to remember the future, but doesn't at all ensure the future is not neglected.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. David M. Levinson‏ @trnsprtst Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        I think those aims could be combined. We don’t need another Arbor Day/ Earth Day conflict.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @trnsprtst

        I'm not proposing a day per year, I'm talking a future event that happens once.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. mjk1093‏ @mjk1093 Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Nice thought, but nothing guarantees that dysgenic evolution won't win out. Short-term maximizers can nuke whatever resources the theoretically long-term victors may have taken advantage of otherwise.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @mjk1093

        Nothing guarantees, but it is the way to bet.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Lucio Martelli‏ @LucioMM1 Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        I know this is a pet issue of yours, but I think you are deeply wrong this time (a rare occurrence). There is plenty of institutions that care for the longer term, family perhaps is the most famous of them.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @LucioMM1

        I didn't say the future is always hurt, but that the future tends to be neglected, even by families. E.g., families who cared for more future influence would have higher fertility.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Daniel Marin‏ @danielmarin1983 Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Genes are simple units that have succeded in going the distance. Those genes, in different combinations, will own the long now.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @danielmarin1983

        Within 1000 years, bio genes will mostly be a historical curiosity; they won't be where most designs are stored.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Johannes Jost Meixner‏ @xmjEE Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        we do, it's called "tort law"

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @xmjEE

        Huh? Tort law only indirectly promotes long term views, and then only in some situations.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Johannes Jost Meixner‏ @xmjEE Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Indeed, by continually removing egregores with "short views" whose long-term side effects would be net-negative -- and persisting removal choices

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Mark Miro‏ @markmiro Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Another perspective: we're seeing the Peter principle in orgs and assume the problem is with the big orgs. Maybe big orgs are fine as they are. Maybe we just need to make sure smaller orgs don't get crushed by red tape when trying to compete.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Burton‏ @Burtcomma Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson @instapundit

        Hmm, who was it who said in the long run we are all dead?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Robin Green 🌹 🔰‏ @greenrd Nov 2
        Replying to @Burtcomma @robinhanson @instapundit

        That just goes to show Keynes wasn't perfect 😀

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Michael Burton‏ @Burtcomma Nov 2
        Replying to @greenrd @robinhanson @instapundit

        He was far from it.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation

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