Why is long-run planning possible?
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For the same reason short run planning is possible. You can generate possible plans, & evaluate them on good outcomes and ease of following.
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Tree of possible plans grows exponentially with time horizon; so the cost of long run planning is prohibitively expensive. Possible to build simpler models but not clear those models can usefully predict quantities of interest (status, happiness, wealth)
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I agree complexity makes longer term planning harder, all else equal. But this is not the only thing going on; short term preferences are also a real thing.
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You know about Future Day, March 1? http://www.kurzweilai.net/future-day-a-new-global-holiday-march-1 …
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Yes. That's a day to remember the future, but doesn't at all ensure the future is not neglected.
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I think those aims could be combined. We don’t need another Arbor Day/ Earth Day conflict.
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I'm not proposing a day per year, I'm talking a future event that happens once.
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Nice thought, but nothing guarantees that dysgenic evolution won't win out. Short-term maximizers can nuke whatever resources the theoretically long-term victors may have taken advantage of otherwise.
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Nothing guarantees, but it is the way to bet.
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I know this is a pet issue of yours, but I think you are deeply wrong this time (a rare occurrence). There is plenty of institutions that care for the longer term, family perhaps is the most famous of them.
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I didn't say the future is always hurt, but that the future tends to be neglected, even by families. E.g., families who cared for more future influence would have higher fertility.
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Genes are simple units that have succeded in going the distance. Those genes, in different combinations, will own the long now.
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Within 1000 years, bio genes will mostly be a historical curiosity; they won't be where most designs are stored.
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we do, it's called "tort law"
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Huh? Tort law only indirectly promotes long term views, and then only in some situations.
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Indeed, by continually removing egregores with "short views" whose long-term side effects would be net-negative -- and persisting removal choices
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Another perspective: we're seeing the Peter principle in orgs and assume the problem is with the big orgs. Maybe big orgs are fine as they are. Maybe we just need to make sure smaller orgs don't get crushed by red tape when trying to compete.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Hmm, who was it who said in the long run we are all dead?
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That just goes to show Keynes wasn't perfect

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He was far from it.
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