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robinhanson's profile
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Verified account
@robinhanson

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Robin HansonVerified account

@robinhanson

Let's skip witty repartee & position taking, & discuss enduring fundamental questions. (& my books: http://ageofem.com , http://elephantinthebrain.com )

Fairfax, VA
hanson.gmu.edu
Joined July 2007

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    1. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2

      "the lifetime risk of being wrongfully convicted to the risk of being a victim of a violent crime. The relative risk ratio appears to be about 30,000 to 1." If so, we are trying way too hard to prevent wrongful convictions, relative to deterring crime.https://reason.com/volokh/2018/11/01/how-often-are-innocent-persons-convicted?fbclid=IwAR2Ac4e_BxGO74jcBt0nuKawrtBHgmBeinlo2wcG7NLWNLMDhpriG_xxjnk …

      22 replies 22 retweets 72 likes
    2. 1177434a‏ @1177434a Nov 2
      Replying to @robinhanson

      How could you tell by ratio alone what the perfect number would be? Isn't it conditional on the actual systems and processes involved? What if crime policy that decreases the ratio of wrongful convictions also decreases the overall crime rate? Or vice versa?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. 1177434a‏ @1177434a Nov 2
      Replying to @1177434a @robinhanson

      Just because we have got something low doesn't mean we're spending too much on it. There's only a few cases of polio for every million polio vaccinations, it doesn't mean we're spending too much money on polio vaccinations.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
      Replying to @1177434a

      In the case of polio the cost of the vaccine is vastly less than the cost of getting polio. But in the case of violent crime, the harm of the crime is more comparable to the typical punishment for convicts.

      11:48 AM - 2 Nov 2018
      • 2 Likes
      • Patrick S Fitzgerald Tetraspace and Grouping
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. 1177434a‏ @1177434a Nov 2
          Replying to @robinhanson

          The immediate cost savings of ending polio vaccination would be far higher than the cost of treating the few extra cases of polio. The point is you need to actually crunch the numbers, not assume something that sounds small is not worth spending on.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. 1177434a‏ @1177434a Nov 2
          Replying to @1177434a @robinhanson

          Punishing convicts doesn't achieve any goal. The goal is reducing crime. The evidence base for short-term prison sentences is weak at best at actually reducing lifetime crime of the criminal and it costs a huge amount of money.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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