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robinhanson's profile
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Verified account
@robinhanson

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Robin HansonVerified account

@robinhanson

Let's skip witty repartee & position taking, & discuss enduring fundamental questions. (& my books: http://ageofem.com , http://elephantinthebrain.com )

Fairfax, VA
hanson.gmu.edu
Joined July 2007

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    Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2

    "the lifetime risk of being wrongfully convicted to the risk of being a victim of a violent crime. The relative risk ratio appears to be about 30,000 to 1." If so, we are trying way too hard to prevent wrongful convictions, relative to deterring crime.https://reason.com/volokh/2018/11/01/how-often-are-innocent-persons-convicted?fbclid=IwAR2Ac4e_BxGO74jcBt0nuKawrtBHgmBeinlo2wcG7NLWNLMDhpriG_xxjnk …

    7:58 AM - 2 Nov 2018
    • 22 Retweets
    • 72 Likes
    • Boz Steinkalt Jotto999 sansnom huevo Sina Motamedi Steve Bachelor Max F Maxim Lott Dan Masters
    22 replies 22 retweets 72 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Danno the manno‏ @Danno28_ Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        I’d rather be punched in the mouth than wrongfully sentenced to 10 years in prison. Which is another way of saying I agree with tolerating some avoidable violent crime in return for a low probability of wrongful conviction.

        2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @Danno28_

        But would you rather be punched in the mouth 30,000 times?

        5 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
      4. Danno the manno‏ @Danno28_ Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Well I only expect to live for 30,000 days. So I will say that being punched in the mouth once a day for my entire life would get tiresome. But I’d rather myself and 29,999 strangers get punched once and none of us are wrongfully convicted/sentenced.

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @Danno28_

        Sure, its easily to volunteer strangers to get punched.

        3 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
      6. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. After Sol‏ @Locus_of_Ctrl Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        There may be good reasons to avoid wrongful convictions other than individual justice. For example, in a country where the bar for evidence leading to conviction is low, one can expect the state to use criminal charges against political opponents.

        1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @Locus_of_Ctrl

        Those would be wrongful convictions, right?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. After Sol‏ @Locus_of_Ctrl Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Right.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @Locus_of_Ctrl

        Are those wrongful convictions a worse problem than all the others?

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. After Sol‏ @Locus_of_Ctrl Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        It seems to me that yes.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      7. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. 1177434a‏ @1177434a Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        How could you tell by ratio alone what the perfect number would be? Isn't it conditional on the actual systems and processes involved? What if crime policy that decreases the ratio of wrongful convictions also decreases the overall crime rate? Or vice versa?

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. 1177434a‏ @1177434a Nov 2
        Replying to @1177434a @robinhanson

        Just because we have got something low doesn't mean we're spending too much on it. There's only a few cases of polio for every million polio vaccinations, it doesn't mean we're spending too much money on polio vaccinations.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @1177434a

        In the case of polio the cost of the vaccine is vastly less than the cost of getting polio. But in the case of violent crime, the harm of the crime is more comparable to the typical punishment for convicts.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. 1177434a‏ @1177434a Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        The immediate cost savings of ending polio vaccination would be far higher than the cost of treating the few extra cases of polio. The point is you need to actually crunch the numbers, not assume something that sounds small is not worth spending on.

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      6. 1177434a‏ @1177434a Nov 2
        Replying to @1177434a @robinhanson

        Punishing convicts doesn't achieve any goal. The goal is reducing crime. The evidence base for short-term prison sentences is weak at best at actually reducing lifetime crime of the criminal and it costs a huge amount of money.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Dmitry Saava‏ @dsaava Nov 3
        Replying to @robinhanson

        How can this possibly be? The total risk of being a victim of a crime shall be at least in the same order of magnitude as being convicted (both rightfully and wrongfully). I think they meant 1 in 30k chance of wrongful conviction out of all set of convictions

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 3
        Replying to @dsaava

        I think they mean 30K crimes to 1 wrongful conviction.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. The_C00N‏ @The_0mega_Man Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Sooo... We should be letting more innocent people go to jail? I'm sure that's not what you're saying..

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Nov 2
        Replying to @The_0mega_Man

        Yes, that's what I'm saying.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. The_C00N‏ @The_0mega_Man Nov 2
        Replying to @robinhanson

        pic.twitter.com/K44W76zJCd

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation

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