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robinhanson's profile
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
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@robinhanson

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Robin HansonVerified account

@robinhanson

Let's skip witty repartee & position taking, & discuss enduring fundamental questions. (& my books: http://ageofem.com , http://elephantinthebrain.com )

Fairfax, VA
hanson.gmu.edu
Joined July 2007

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    1. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 27

      Sheryl Sandberg says too few female bosses mainly due to not hiring enough women as 1st level bosses. As fix I suggest: prediction markets in if person hired as level-1 boss would be promoted to level-2 boss within Y years. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/10/women-in-management-prediction-market.html …

      4 replies 5 retweets 23 likes
    2. Carey Lening‏ @PrivaCat Oct 27
      Replying to @robinhanson

      Interesting proposal, but I'd love to test first before applying to actual cases -- for one, I'd love to better understand the composition of the predictive market participants. If they strongly lean male, I'm concerned that unconscious bias might affect the outcome.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 27
      Replying to @PrivaCat

      I'm happy to endorse starting with small scale tests, but we have a lot of data showing that prediction market prices don't show the biases you might expect due to demographics of participants. Eg heavily republican bettors don't lean that way in US president markets.

      5:46 AM - 27 Oct 2018
      • 2 Likes
      • Carey Lening ꙮvchinnikov
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Carey Lening‏ @PrivaCat Oct 27
          Replying to @robinhanson

          Still, do we have an even moderately diverse distribution of participants? I feel like it might be different if we're talking about colleagues v distant political figures. Dunno, I could be wrong, but there's ample evidence that unconscious and in-group bias are strong drivers.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 27
          Replying to @PrivaCat

          They are much less strong in the context of the financial incentives and selection effects of prediction markets.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Carey Lening‏ @PrivaCat Oct 27
          Replying to @robinhanson

          Fair. Like I said, a very interesting experiment to say the least.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. Pablo Perez‏ @GeniousPablo Nov 5
          Replying to @robinhanson @PrivaCat

          Exactly, that's why http://atlaspredict.com  lets you show the prediction markets you create only to those people you decide to share it with. That way bias get eliminated.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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