Interesting proposal, but I'd love to test first before applying to actual cases -- for one, I'd love to better understand the composition of the predictive market participants. If they strongly lean male, I'm concerned that unconscious bias might affect the outcome.
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I'm happy to endorse starting with small scale tests, but we have a lot of data showing that prediction market prices don't show the biases you might expect due to demographics of participants. Eg heavily republican bettors don't lean that way in US president markets.
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Still, do we have an even moderately diverse distribution of participants? I feel like it might be different if we're talking about colleagues v distant political figures. Dunno, I could be wrong, but there's ample evidence that unconscious and in-group bias are strong drivers.
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They are much less strong in the context of the financial incentives and selection effects of prediction markets.
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Fair. Like I said, a very interesting experiment to say the least.
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How does the prediction market promote the advancement of women in management? Are firms supposed to change somehow based on the weight of the odds the market provides?
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If those hiring are biased now against women, then if they in the future put more weight on these market odds, and if such odds are not biased against women, then yes hiring would become less biased against women.
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If you partnered with someone who could sell this as a social justice issue I bet you could get some SV consulting gigs out of this.
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Silicon Valley
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How big do you think market subsidies would have to be to get reliable predictions?
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Manipulation incentives, of candidates to puff up theirs chances, would be enough.
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Ooooh, interesting.
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