FPP doesn't incentivize anything. I tried to address the some of the same points, (A Research Prediction Market Framework)https://www.researchers.one/article/2018-09-15 …
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It doesn't incentivize accurate author assessment of rep prob?
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1/ I can't imagine where a team would post an additional 50% of research cost in escrow as collateral to fund replication research for a lengthy period of time (2 years). Followed by the assumption the replication would be carried out by a "trusted, neutral third-party."
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2/ FPP doesn't incentivize anyone who wouldn't already hold themselves to high replication standards. A trusted third-party is a linchpin in practicality that without a system in place for selection undermines the whole idea.
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It would help to make it clear to observers who holds themselves to high replication standards. An ability to find a trusted third party is also a good sign about an author.
End of conversation
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Would make a lot of sense to combine these ideas. The initial author odds shouldn't be trusted as a signal of correctness or quality, but they do indicate that the author takes their idea serious enough that it warrants consideration. 1/
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Instead of opening a PM whenever paper submitted to journal (low barrier to entry), have the prediction market start when the author "seeds" it with an initial ask, e.g., 1000 shares at 80 cents = 80% probability of replication. Then PM begins but author has to get it started.
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The problem it presses scientists from poor countries too much, compared from a rich ones.
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If you're worried about that, just think about it apply it in rich countries for now. Don't get distracted by the many practical matters to work out with any reform (author or market-driven odds). Keep focused on the big idea.
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Then, I think we should run it immediately, for example as a special section on http://researchers.one may be? We should get our hands dirty, by doing experiments. Sadly I know no open source prediction markets.
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We'd like to do that. Working with people right now to see whether and how it could be offered
End of conversation
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