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robinhanson's profile
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
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@robinhanson

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Robin HansonVerified account

@robinhanson

Let's skip witty repartee & position taking, & discuss enduring fundamental questions. (& my books: http://ageofem.com , http://elephantinthebrain.com )

Fairfax, VA
hanson.gmu.edu
Joined July 2007

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    Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 26

    Robin Hanson Retweeted Harry Crane

    I respond to @HarryDCrane 's critique comparing author bets and market odds as signals of academic article quality. https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/10/bets-as-signals-of-article-quality.html …https://twitter.com/HarryDCrane/status/1054705980175458305 …

    Robin Hanson added,

    Harry Crane @HarryDCrane
    My talk on Replication Crisis, Prediction Markets and Fundamental Principle of Probability (FPP) Compares Prediction Markets (h/t @robinhanson) to FPP/Skin in the Game @nntaleb https://youtu.be/FKafIkIwntQ 
    Show this thread
    9:25 AM - 26 Oct 2018
    • 1 Retweet
    • 6 Likes
    • Rambling&Wondering Stefan McCabe Harry Crane Tequehead dotglum José Luis Ricón (Artir) Fantô
    2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Maxx Jay Goad‏ @SeriouslyDanger Oct 26
        Replying to @robinhanson @HarryDCrane

        FPP doesn't incentivize anything. I tried to address the some of the same points, (A Research Prediction Market Framework)https://www.researchers.one/article/2018-09-15 …

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Harry Crane‏ @HarryDCrane Oct 26
        Replying to @SeriouslyDanger @robinhanson

        It doesn't incentivize accurate author assessment of rep prob?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Maxx Jay Goad‏ @SeriouslyDanger Oct 27
        Replying to @HarryDCrane @robinhanson

        1/ I can't imagine where a team would post an additional 50% of research cost in escrow as collateral to fund replication research for a lengthy period of time (2 years). Followed by the assumption the replication would be carried out by a "trusted, neutral third-party."

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Maxx Jay Goad‏ @SeriouslyDanger Oct 27
        Replying to @SeriouslyDanger @HarryDCrane @robinhanson

        2/ FPP doesn't incentivize anyone who wouldn't already hold themselves to high replication standards. A trusted third-party is a linchpin in practicality that without a system in place for selection undermines the whole idea.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 27
        Replying to @SeriouslyDanger @HarryDCrane

        It would help to make it clear to observers who holds themselves to high replication standards. An ability to find a trusted third party is also a good sign about an author.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Harry Crane‏ @HarryDCrane Oct 27
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Would make a lot of sense to combine these ideas. The initial author odds shouldn't be trusted as a signal of correctness or quality, but they do indicate that the author takes their idea serious enough that it warrants consideration. 1/

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Harry Crane‏ @HarryDCrane Oct 27
        Replying to @HarryDCrane @robinhanson

        Instead of opening a PM whenever paper submitted to journal (low barrier to entry), have the prediction market start when the author "seeds" it with an initial ask, e.g., 1000 shares at 80 cents = 80% probability of replication. Then PM begins but author has to get it started.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. ꙮvchinnikov‏ @ovchinnikov Oct 27
        Replying to @HarryDCrane @robinhanson

        The problem it presses scientists from poor countries too much, compared from a rich ones.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Harry Crane‏ @HarryDCrane Oct 27
        Replying to @ovchinnikov @robinhanson

        If you're worried about that, just think about it apply it in rich countries for now. Don't get distracted by the many practical matters to work out with any reform (author or market-driven odds). Keep focused on the big idea.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. ꙮvchinnikov‏ @ovchinnikov Oct 27
        Replying to @HarryDCrane @robinhanson

        Then, I think we should run it immediately, for example as a special section on http://researchers.one  may be? We should get our hands dirty, by doing experiments. Sadly I know no open source prediction markets.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      7. Harry Crane‏ @HarryDCrane Oct 27
        Replying to @ovchinnikov @robinhanson

        We'd like to do that. Working with people right now to see whether and how it could be offered

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. End of conversation

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