That math assumes independence. But having watched many big programs (albeit not anywhere near ‘megaprojects’) it is amazingly true that some (rare) managers seem to have all the ‘luck’ and often hit all three measures (on sch, on budget and on goal)
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FWIW the best of these managers had interesting techniques. Eg no one cld attend big reviews until they proved that they had read key materials and had ideas to contribute. He actually gave tests. To senior professionals.
End of conversation
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