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robinhanson's profile
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
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@robinhanson

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Robin HansonVerified account

@robinhanson

Let's skip witty repartee & position taking, & discuss enduring fundamental questions. (& my books: http://ageofem.com , http://elephantinthebrain.com )

Fairfax, VA
hanson.gmu.edu
Joined July 2007

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    Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 22

    We have good reasons to expect biological selection to create high discount rates. But why hasn't cultural selection made orgs (nations, religions, firms, etc) with lower discount rates? Why doesn't patience help orgs win wars, business competition, etc? https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mic.4.4.172 …

    1:50 AM - 22 Oct 2018
    • 6 Retweets
    • 28 Likes
    • Tobi Lawson Juan Cricco Philip E. Tetlock Aculturedleftfoot Ian Pitchford David Manheim Tom Jesson Stefan Schubert Ritvik
    5 replies 6 retweets 28 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Lucio Martelli‏ @LucioMM1 Oct 22
        Replying to @robinhanson

        we actually have organizations with very low discount rates. Many foundations for example. Many cultural associations. Accademia della crusca (italian language preservers) for example. The seed bank in norway. Many swiss institutions. Etc

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 22
        Replying to @LucioMM1

        Wouldn't a low discount org save/invest in future and grow relative to other orgs?

        3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Lucio Martelli‏ @LucioMM1 Oct 22
        Replying to @robinhanson

        think a foundation doing live-saving works in africa. There is no positive selection per se on their work, unless people that are going to donate share the low discount rates. Also individuals can't verify if they are right afterwards, because they are dead when it happens

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 22
        Replying to @LucioMM1

        If the org has a low discount rate and can save, it will save a lot. If it isn't allowed to save, not clear what it means to say it has a low discount rate.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Tailcalled‏ @tailcalled Oct 22
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Is culture persistent enough for this to work?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 22
        Replying to @tailcalled

        Many aspects of culture have been quite persistent over the farming era.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Tailcalled‏ @tailcalled Oct 22
        Replying to @robinhanson

        But is that due to inherent persistence of culture, or merely because the persistent aspects were selected for at individual and not just group level?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. supernova samsara‏ @samsaragon Oct 22
        Replying to @robinhanson

        quarterlies pressure is high discount rate

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 23
        Replying to @samsaragon

        Nations and religions have quarterlies pressures?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. supernova samsara‏ @samsaragon Oct 23
        Replying to @robinhanson

        nations: electoral pressure isn't quarterly but relatively high discount rate compared to alternatives, no? religions: prosperity gospel is beating a heavenly afterlife

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Ben Turner‏ @BT_BXL Oct 22
        Replying to @robinhanson

        There are certainly entities (empires, countries, churches, companies) that have lasted far longer than other entities in the same class. Maybe they do have lower discount rates?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. BKKeconcode‏ @BKKeconcode Oct 22
        Replying to @robinhanson

        Exhibit A: modern central banking, Exhibit B: http://Amazon.com 

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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