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robinhanson's profile
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
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@robinhanson

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Robin HansonVerified account

@robinhanson

Let's skip witty repartee & position taking, & discuss enduring fundamental questions. (& my books: http://ageofem.com , http://elephantinthebrain.com )

Fairfax, VA
hanson.gmu.edu
Joined July 2007

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    Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 17

    .@GarettJones says US Congress should have longer terms, as they pick worse policy just before election. I agree.

    9:40 AM - 17 Oct 2018
    • 6 Retweets
    • 43 Likes
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    7 replies 6 retweets 43 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 17

        He also says better for govt agency heads to be appointed for long terms, not elected, and to be more independent. Eg independent Fed works well.

        3 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 17

        Seems to me the key gain is to move voters from prospective to retrospective voting. Instead of picking people who share their views, fire people associated with past bad outcomes.

        7 replies 5 retweets 42 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 17

        Another angle: Yes voters are bosses, but bosses shouldn't micromanage. If you bother to hire someone to do stuff, you should hope they many known things you don't, & give them some space to prove that to you. Later, if outcomes look bad, fire them.

        3 replies 5 retweets 29 likes
        Show this thread
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Steven 'Roback' Marlow‏ @sd_marlow Oct 17
        Replying to @robinhanson @GarettJones

        Isn't it really a case of saying we need to get rid of midterm elections (place all of them on same 4 year voting schedule)?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Garett Jones  🏛️‏Verified account @GarettJones Oct 17
        Replying to @sd_marlow @robinhanson

        I contend the opposite: In a world where voter moods are transient, more lower-stakes elections are better than fewer high-stakes elections. Like the US Senate---a continuing body with gradual change

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Steven 'Roback' Marlow‏ @sd_marlow Oct 17
        Replying to @GarettJones @robinhanson

        That's less about term limits, and more about the two party system. If we had a five party system, then there is no longer a fight to be THE party (because now coalitions are a requirement to reach a majority on anything, regardless of election results).

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 17
        Replying to @sd_marlow @GarettJones

        In Europe where they have a parliamentary system and more than two parties, they still have politicians choosing worse policy just before elections.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. Steven 'Roback' Marlow‏ @sd_marlow Oct 17
        Replying to @robinhanson @GarettJones

        So politicians wait til the last minute to do their homework. Longer election cycle does not mean more thoughtful efforts into policy, just more time for them to waste.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 17
        Replying to @sd_marlow @GarettJones

        They make policy choices that matter all through their job cycle.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. Steven 'Roback' Marlow‏ @sd_marlow Oct 17
        Replying to @robinhanson @GarettJones

        So what are we talking about? One bad choice every 2 years, or potentially dozens of bad choices over a 6 year period? If election cycle is such a bad influence, then none of them deserve to be in office.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Dennis Shea‏ @DennisG_Shea Oct 17
        Replying to @robinhanson @GarettJones

        Might have something to do with the financing of elections, not term length. Making them even less accountable without changing the finances may be a very bad idea.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Garett Jones  🏛️‏Verified account @GarettJones Oct 17
        Replying to @DennisG_Shea

        I review a lot of evidence in my forthcoming book, 10% Less Democracy, and overall the pattern is that voters appear short-sighted, and policy is worse just before elections. So holding other rules constant--like financing rules--longer terms appear a pretty cheap lunch! 😃

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Chris Corliss‏ @cjcorliss Oct 17
        Replying to @robinhanson @GarettJones

        Seems like benefit of shorter terms is democratic legitimacy. If so, the gains from longer terms might be offset by higher risk of eventual mob rule. E.g. what would a 6-year term for Pres. Hoover look like?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Garett Jones  🏛️‏Verified account @GarettJones Oct 17
        Replying to @cjcorliss @robinhanson

        Seems testable!

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. madeofmistake‏ @madeofmistak3 Oct 17
        Replying to @robinhanson @GarettJones

        How would we determine the optimal length?

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Lucio Martelli‏ @LucioMM1 Oct 17
        Replying to @madeofmistak3 @robinhanson @GarettJones

        Hard to do, but having 2 years when every other country has 4/5 is strange.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. (((Murshak)))‏ @amurshak Oct 17
        Replying to @robinhanson @GarettJones

        I also agree. Two years for a new incumbent is barely enough time to get situated in Congress, learn the ropes, maybe legislate, and then go back on campaign again.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. HyperProle‏ @HyperProle Oct 17
        Replying to @robinhanson @GarettJones

        Lifetime terms. Assassination as recall.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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