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robinhanson's profile
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Verified account
@robinhanson

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Robin HansonVerified account

@robinhanson

Let's skip witty repartee & position taking, & discuss enduring fundamental questions. (& my books: http://ageofem.com , http://elephantinthebrain.com )

Fairfax, VA
hanson.gmu.edu
Joined July 2007

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    1. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12

      .@pratik_makadiya repeats complaints that futarchy "doesn’t provide enough protection against manipulation by a single powerful entity or coalition" & "most people do not have enough sources to find correct and accurate information".https://btcmanager.com/deep-dive-into-futarchy/ …

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12

      Yet we have big literature showing that not only isn't it a problem, the possibility of manipulators actually *increases* market accuracy: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/rah-price-manipulators.html …

      4 replies 5 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Misha Gurevich  🎯‏ @drethelin Oct 12
      Replying to @robinhanson @fire__exit

      If a decision market has the power to enact laws, we have a TON of evidence that manipulating it decreases price accuracy and causes huge problems.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
      Replying to @drethelin @fire__exit

      Have a cite to offer?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Misha Gurevich  🎯‏ @drethelin Oct 12
      Replying to @robinhanson @fire__exit

      I don’t have a great one off hand but here is one example of the effects of money/incentives influencing the markethttps://www.mercatus.org/expert_commentary/regulatory-capture-what-experts-have-found …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
      Replying to @drethelin @fire__exit

      I'm well aware of regulatory capture. I don't see how that is relevant to claim that traders can effectively manipulate prices in speculative markets.

      3:17 PM - 12 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Misha Gurevich  🎯‏ @drethelin Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson @fire__exit

          Futarchy isn’t just speculative markets, it’s decisions make by market price, no? There’s plenty of evidence that markets have been manipulated by individual traders in the past. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornering_the_market … cornering the market usually but most markets don’t govern laws.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
          Replying to @drethelin @fire__exit

          Betting markets cannot be cornered, as an unlimited supply is available.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Misha Gurevich  🎯‏ @drethelin Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson @fire__exit

          In my experience this is not true.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        5. End of conversation

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