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robinhanson's profile
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
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@robinhanson

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Robin HansonVerified account

@robinhanson

Let's skip witty repartee & position taking, & discuss enduring fundamental questions. (& my books: http://ageofem.com , http://elephantinthebrain.com )

Fairfax, VA
hanson.gmu.edu
Joined July 2007

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    1. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12

      .@pratik_makadiya repeats complaints that futarchy "doesn’t provide enough protection against manipulation by a single powerful entity or coalition" & "most people do not have enough sources to find correct and accurate information".https://btcmanager.com/deep-dive-into-futarchy/ …

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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    2. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12

      Yet we have big literature showing that not only isn't it a problem, the possibility of manipulators actually *increases* market accuracy: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/rah-price-manipulators.html …

      4 replies 5 retweets 17 likes
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    3. Tailcalled‏ @tailcalled Oct 12
      Replying to @robinhanson

      Does this also hold if the manipulators are large compared to the total market participants, though? For things like decision markets to set government policy, perhaps entities like banks would have size&incentive to manipulate beyond what market can fix.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
      Replying to @tailcalled

      In real financial markets today, there just are no market traders that big, at least when the whole rest of the world is allowed to trade.

      1:22 PM - 12 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Tailcalled‏ @tailcalled Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson

          Seems like decision markets for government decisions might allow traders to have bigger effects on things, which could lead to bigger advantage from manipulating markets vs if it's just financial markets.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
          Replying to @tailcalled

          I don't see why you expect traders to have bigger effects here.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Tailcalled‏ @tailcalled Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson

          A decision market on government policy seems like it could affect "the rules of the game" (issues like government spending, central bank interest rate, ...) which seem like they would have a much larger effect than traditional manipulation.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        5. Tailcalled‏ @tailcalled Oct 12
          Replying to @tailcalled @robinhanson

          I may be wrong though, but I feel like an analysis of how potential benefits from decision market manipulation differ from potential benefits of traditional market manipulation is missing.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. End of conversation

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