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robinhanson's profile
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Verified account
@robinhanson

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Robin HansonVerified account

@robinhanson

Let's skip witty repartee & position taking, & discuss enduring fundamental questions. (& my books: http://ageofem.com , http://elephantinthebrain.com )

Fairfax, VA
hanson.gmu.edu
Joined July 2007

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    1. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12

      .@pratik_makadiya repeats complaints that futarchy "doesn’t provide enough protection against manipulation by a single powerful entity or coalition" & "most people do not have enough sources to find correct and accurate information".https://btcmanager.com/deep-dive-into-futarchy/ …

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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      Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12

      Yet we have big literature showing that not only isn't it a problem, the possibility of manipulators actually *increases* market accuracy: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/rah-price-manipulators.html …

      1:07 PM - 12 Oct 2018
      • 5 Retweets
      • 17 Likes
      • Superforecastr Fitzy Artifact Renan Cunha Randall Burns Patri Friedman Misha Gurevich 🎯 ฿ alien Jarrod Woodard 🐻
      4 replies 5 retweets 17 likes
        1. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12

          And the fact that most people aren't well informed is a common fact that all institutions much face. We have much larger literature on market efficiency suggesting markets compare favorably to all other info institutions.

          1 reply 3 retweets 17 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Misha Gurevich  🎯‏ @drethelin Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson @fire__exit

          If a decision market has the power to enact laws, we have a TON of evidence that manipulating it decreases price accuracy and causes huge problems.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
          Replying to @drethelin @fire__exit

          Have a cite to offer?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Misha Gurevich  🎯‏ @drethelin Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson @fire__exit

          I don’t have a great one off hand but here is one example of the effects of money/incentives influencing the markethttps://www.mercatus.org/expert_commentary/regulatory-capture-what-experts-have-found …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
          Replying to @drethelin @fire__exit

          I'm well aware of regulatory capture. I don't see how that is relevant to claim that traders can effectively manipulate prices in speculative markets.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Misha Gurevich  🎯‏ @drethelin Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson @fire__exit

          Futarchy isn’t just speculative markets, it’s decisions make by market price, no? There’s plenty of evidence that markets have been manipulated by individual traders in the past. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornering_the_market … cornering the market usually but most markets don’t govern laws.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
          Replying to @drethelin @fire__exit

          Betting markets cannot be cornered, as an unlimited supply is available.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Misha Gurevich  🎯‏ @drethelin Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson @fire__exit

          In my experience this is not true.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        9. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Tailcalled‏ @tailcalled Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson

          Does this also hold if the manipulators are large compared to the total market participants, though? For things like decision markets to set government policy, perhaps entities like banks would have size&incentive to manipulate beyond what market can fix.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
          Replying to @tailcalled

          In real financial markets today, there just are no market traders that big, at least when the whole rest of the world is allowed to trade.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Tailcalled‏ @tailcalled Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson

          Seems like decision markets for government decisions might allow traders to have bigger effects on things, which could lead to bigger advantage from manipulating markets vs if it's just financial markets.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
          Replying to @tailcalled

          I don't see why you expect traders to have bigger effects here.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Tailcalled‏ @tailcalled Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson

          A decision market on government policy seems like it could affect "the rules of the game" (issues like government spending, central bank interest rate, ...) which seem like they would have a much larger effect than traditional manipulation.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        7. Tailcalled‏ @tailcalled Oct 12
          Replying to @tailcalled @robinhanson

          I may be wrong though, but I feel like an analysis of how potential benefits from decision market manipulation differ from potential benefits of traditional market manipulation is missing.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Basil Marte‏ @BasilMarte Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson

          What if I make a precommitment to make a payout, out of pocket, in exact inverse proportion to the market payout rule, and thereby obliterate any incentive to hold the winning option? In the game, "The bank pays 100 if the suspect is guilty; I pay 100 is he is innocent."

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Oct 12
          Replying to @BasilMarte

          I don’t think you’ve thought that through.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Basil Marte‏ @BasilMarte Oct 12
          Replying to @robinhanson

          Sure, for a binary option, I would need to pay just as much as the market was subsidized with. But (assuming linear payout rule) I can affect the relative expected-value-at-payout(s) proportionately to how much money I can throw into the payout relative to the original subsidy.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation

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