Robin HansonVerified account

90% would never accuse at all, so your framing is misleading by focusing the data set only on those who would accuse.

I didn't mean to condition on accusing.

So you want our estimate of the chances Blasey Ford is telling the truth divided by our estimate of the number of girls that were assaulted by Supreme Court nominees in high school?

The question I asked is only on one of many factors relevant to estimating truth telling here.

Robin I would take this down if I were you... it evinces extreme unawareness of what life is like as a woman.

Isn't the answer to this question informative about what life is like as a woman?

No. It's informative of how men (who form the vast majority of your twitter followers) perceive what life is like as a woman.

Feel free to forward the poll to more female-heavy groups.

There are many reasons why victims don't accuse right away, or ever sometimes. Attitudes like yours, for example. Sometimes it might take a big push to get over those reasons. Like the realization that your assaulter is about to be in a lifetime position of national power.

Considerations like yours could lead one to answer my poll with a high %. What is so wrong about asking people the question, and seeing what are their answers? How is the urge to ask such a question a bad attitude?

You’re acting as if this is just some professional tossup of a question that doesn’t affect literally hundreds of millions of people, half of who are women

I'm treating the topic as serious and important. I have not been joking or flippant or disrespectful.

No. You’ve been cool and rational. I submit that that’s not appropriate when so many people are understandably angry and frightened and you are not in their group but in the group they feel is benefiting.

So all writings on rape, even by academics, should be angry and emotional, not cool and rational?

Of course not. But here we are talking about a specific case that has an enormous impact on the country. It’s not a category.

This seems really crass. If you are serious I’ll vote. If this is just some passive-aggressive way to shame a sexual assault victim, you need to do some serious soul-searching.

I intend no shaming of anyone here.

I wonder why so many people are getting that signal from you.

Sadly, we are in a very politically polarized society. People sit on hair-triggers to infer which side others are on, and fell free to trash those that seem to be on the other side.

I just heard you on a Sam Harris podcast you did a few months back and really enjoyed your insight. The problem you have with this, I think, is if it were a purely academic point it would seem benign but because there are real people's lives and wellbeing at stake it seems...