Some interesting thoughts on this in a thread with @davidmanheim, @RokoMijicUK, @anderssandberg and others:https://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/1221690568515948545 …
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In short, the answer is that once it's endemic, stopping spread via quarantine will not be plausible - but if spread gets delayed 6 months or a year we might have a vaccine. But per that thread, broad quarantine / general border closure is usually stupid and counterproductive.
- Još 6 drugih odgovora
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Current
@metaculus predictions suggest 180k total cases this year so I would say not everyone thinks the spread is inevitablehttps://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-will-be-reported-before-2021-question-two/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Delay might be valuable, even if it is eventually overcome.
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There is still a lot of uncertainty about how bad nCov is going to be. It is worth paying to reduce that uncertainty - quarantine china and see how they cope for the next few months and then decide how much effort we want to put into trying to avoid their fate.
- Još 2 druga odgovora
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I understood the dynamic to be mostly about delaying until a vaccine can be developed
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Slowing the spread gives countries more time to prepare - logistics, supplies, treatment procedures, medications, maybe even a vaccine?
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I got the impression that epidemiological models are pretty decent at answering this quantitatively already, eg by outputting total number of expected infections under various containment scenarios. FWIW so far we haven’t seen sustained human transmission on most continents
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