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Out today! Our paper in @NatureMedicine linking rising temperatures with increases in suicides, assaults, drownings and transport accidents. Summary below. @ImperialCollege @Grantham_IC @Columbia @EarthInstitute @Harvard @HarvardChanSPH @nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-019-0721-y …pic.twitter.com/KhxL5Uem4i
Temperatures that deviate from the long-term local norm affect human health, and are projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes. There are limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries.pic.twitter.com/vL5BnMRUHn
We found that a 2°C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement, would be associated with an estimated 2,135 (95% credible interval 1,906–2,368) additional injury deaths (1% increase of total injury deaths)pic.twitter.com/qPGUwCdZLZ
84% of additional deaths would occur in males, mostly in adolescence to middle age. These would comprise increases in deaths from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from falls in older ages.
Most excess deaths would be from transport injuries followed closely by suicide. Of all male excess deaths, 92% would occur in those aged 15–64 years, who have higher rates of deaths from transport and suicide #epitwitter #ClimateChange
Drownings are plausibly linked with anomalously warm temperatures because swimming is more likely in periods of warm weather.
Transport accidents are also linked because driving performance deteriorates at higher temperatures, due to decreased visual acuity as well as increased alcohol consumption.
Increases in assaults may be due to increasing anger levels and more time spent outdoors interacting with other people during warmer weather. Reasons for increased suicide deaths are not well-established and warrant further investigation.
It is important to highlight that the research has policy relevance for today’s world; anomalous temperatures are occurring all the time, with varying warm anomalies evident throughout most years, especially recently.pic.twitter.com/LwCEVfKbEo
For example, investing in better public transport can have a co-benefit of improving city connectivity, reducing air pollution from private transport, while also reducing the number of potential incidences of driving accidents in times of warmer temperatures.pic.twitter.com/BhWNJ9RPVh
Beyond the now well-established links between warmer temperatures and health, there are other potentially important ones. These include a ‘hidden burden’ of mental health from rising temperatures, as highlighted by my results showing a positive association between suicides
On a practical level in the community, this may mean that during warmer temperatures, someone who appears to be OK (at least physically) may not actually be. They may be suffering on the inside. @heathealth_info #mentalhealth #ClimateChange
So, look out for and check in on each other, build a sense of community wherever you are! It could make a difference to someone’s health and well-being, both inside and out. @heathealth_info #mentalhealth #ClimateChange
On a personal note, this is the culmination of almost five years of work as a PhD student. It has been a long and rocky road! Thank you to my co-authors Majid Ezzati, James Bennett, Helen Tamura-Wicks, Vasilis Kontis, Ralf Toumi, Goodarz Danaei especiallypic.twitter.com/YuUIFTtNvm
The paper is also the subject of the cover art for the @NatureMedicine issue. Huge thanks to @amykatewolfe (and @CharlieJRoscoe who put us in touch) who illustrated our paper findings for the cover https://www.nature.com/nm/volumes/26/issues/1 … https://amykatewolfe.com pic.twitter.com/d0gw0KQqRd
There's also a great editorial by Shanthi Ameratunga and Alistair Woodward of @AucklandUni. The authors highlight very clearly the need for further research in the area which my paper focuses on
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-019-0728-4 …pic.twitter.com/vO0xs9QV5F
Watch this space for articles from @newscientist @voxdotcom @EARTH3R @guardian @guardian @Newsweek @healthdayeditor @DailyMailUK among others...
I would also just like to once more highlight the mental health aspect of #climatechange, and how it is a potentially large 'hidden burden' on the health of our societies #ecoanxietypic.twitter.com/u4v3acyoVN
Our paper in @NatureMedicine also has relevance of course for pushing further and deeper for climate change mitigation. Mental health burden is just one of many reasons why we need to stop and fight the #ClimateCrisis @KevinClimate @AnnPettifor
Many in US and beyond may be interested in the paper in
@NatureMedicine linking rising temperatures with increases in suicides, assaults, drownings and transport accidents: @ginaEPA @BarackObama @ewarren @BernieSanders @AOC @sunrisemvmt @Ilhan https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-019-0721-y …pic.twitter.com/AMCoAUJDMG
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