As per usual, there’s an xkcd for this:http://xkcd.com/1827
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Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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we probably give too much advice to those "below" us, and I'm myself an offender here (though I try to give advice that mostly amounts to "chill out, your wellbeing is more important than your career") so I think not having much advice to give is a good, honest situation to be in
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Totally agree about importance of considering survivorship bias! But I take those tweets as being about the inherent stochasticity and unpredictability of both PhD and faculty hiring. They're counterexamples, not statements about the most likely outcome.
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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survivorship bias is important to think about if you’re concerned with averages but is irrelevant if you’re simply making the point that something is possible
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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I think you are right to think of it, not bad.
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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"Just keep at it and you'll succeed in the end!"pic.twitter.com/x3cyG6g2JF
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Those tweets are indeed not a random sample, but the bias they introduce is to counteract the opposite bias that arises from noisy admissions process, that is the impression that people not admitted into the program are always not good enough
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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I've been rejected for professorships at (a) the uni where I did my PhD (b) the uni where I did my postdoc (c) the uni where I did my MSc (d) the uni where I did my undergrad and was an adjunct prof. It's just a lottery really. I'm not sure what point those tweets are making?!
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Bad person... Or sometime who understands data, sampling, populations, and research design? It's also sampling out of only those who use Twitter.
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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