Richard McElreath

@rlmcelreath

Studies human evolution & ecology, wrote an applied Bayes stats book: … Occasional blog:

MPI-EVA Leipzig
Vrijeme pridruživanja: listopad 2014.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    18. pro 2019.

    Statistical Rethinking 2nd edition, scheduled for March 2020. Here's a summary of changes, with table of contents at the bottom.

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  2. prije 6 sati

    This is a fantastic follow, if you like slow-mo birbs as much as I do. Really beautiful photos too.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
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  4. prije 8 sati

    I feel same about probability theory—need to stop trying to be clever and just commit to the axioms already. After finding solution, can maybe reverse engineer intuition.

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  5. prije 8 sati

    Weaning them off reliance on intuition and into comfort with abstraction (& maybe new intuition) is a hard part about teaching analytical methods. Still struggling to find a smooth path.

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  6. prije 8 sati

    One struggle with teaching DAGs: Students like domain-specific examples in which they can intuit the right answer & so see how the DAG encodes intuition. But even slightly complex DAGs (those below) are hard/impossible to grasp intuitively, regardless of domain. >

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  7. Doing a "flipped" statistics course this year, and this week is the first causal inference homework. Expect I'll be chalking out lots of DAGs. But this is a fox, not a dag.

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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 12 sati

    "The puzzle of language acquisition" - Third Wilhelm Wundt Dialogue with and . Video now online. Great discussion between two of the leading child language researchers. .

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    1) From my collection: Marie Curie (1867-1934) on the French 500 Francs banknote from 1994-95 (P#160a). Bio:

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    prije 21 sat
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  11. 2. velj

    I too enjoy these tweets about people who are professors at institutions that rejected their PhD applications. But am I a bad person (yes) for thinking immediately of survivorship bias? As a possible embodiment of this bias, I find it hard to give advice to junior colleagues.

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  12. 2. velj

    If you enjoyed thinking about calibration, how about this 2018 Gelman post "What is probability?" Only 117 comments... Students tend to be unhappy when I say that statisticians disagree about the answer to this question.

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  13. 2. velj

    I enjoy the concern trolling comments below that say I am right but other things are also right. Peak stats twitter.

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  14. 2. velj

    Has someone already done a post about confusing (1) avg epidemic trajectory -with- (2) epidemic trajectory of avg, but I missed it? One thing I remember from grad school epi is simulating epidemics and seeing how diff avg time path can be from individual paths.

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  15. 2. velj

    The corollary is that posts about highly-technical, cutting-edge techniques produce almost no discussion.

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  16. 2. velj

    One of the nice things about Andrew Gelman's blog is how benign posts routinely produce deep debates about foundations of statistics. This time, the concept of "calibration" (see comments): My attitude (new box in 2nd ed of my book):

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  17. 1. velj

    Finished the last lecture of my winter mini-course on human behavior ecology & culture. I will organize & make these available, possibly turn into my next book project.

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  18. 1. velj

    Little grasshopper mouse, I know how you feel. (from new Netflix "Night on Earth" series) cc

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    A Tufted Titmouse and a Downy Woodpecker stop by for morning snack. You can get a good view of the pretty pattern of black spots on the Downy’s tail feathers.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    I call this my "sabbatical shelf". May can't arrive soon enough cc

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  21. 31. sij

    Nice post from Bob Carpenter about advantages of marginalizing out discrete parameters. Forthcoming 2nd edition of my book has a new section on how to do this in code.

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