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black crime rates are so astronomical that including them in your baseline isn't a fair comparison. even if you do, there are probably still subgroups of immigrants whose children and grandchildren have a higher crime rate than the native population!
and *even then*, the native population includes earlier waves of descendants of immigrants, who probably have higher crime rates than the people who were here before them! but afaik nobody studies this.
and ofc "crime rate" is only part of what we care about - if there are populations that contain much higher percentages of utterly obnoxious shits who don't necessarily do anything *criminal*, they're still making our country worse! it's just harder to measure. crime is legible
...except it isn't! *homicide* is legible. but the underlying thing that the category of homicide measures isn't legible - developments in medicine will "lower the homicide rate" over time without changing any behavior patterns.
if urban areas have better practice of medicine than rural areas but the underlying behavior patterns are exactly the same, urban areas will come out with a lower homicide rate! because better practice of medicine prevents the marginal attack from being fatal.
it would take an *immense* amount of work to even come *close* to a legibilization of the underlying behavioral patterns. i don't know if anyone is doing this. but i certainly don't trust nowrasteh's crowd to.
if it just so happens that refining the legibilizations makes things look worse... well, expect the legibilizations to not be refined.
there are many cases of people insisting they're being "rigorous" on absolutely indefensible legibilizations! take the "effective altruism" crowd - the consensus seems to be that the highest-impact interventions are sending bed nets to africa and funding AI safety research. lmao
any sensible person can look at that and say "wait a minute, sending bed nets to africa isn't an investment! where the hell are your returns?" - but the EA will just drop some nonsense about how you can't measure higher-order effects and should just assume they don't exist.
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