Northam won 58 House of Dels districts. GOP overperformed due to split-ticket voting.
“What Virginia tells us, and doesn’t tell us, about gerrymandering” http://electionlawblog.org/?p=95940 New Nick Stephanopoulos in @latimesopinion Attn: @jbarro
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The statewide vote totals are affected by the fact that about twice as many Dems ran unopposed as GOP dels.
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There is no apparent partisan advantage in the house of dels map compared to the senate map (where Northam won 23/40) and Dems drew that map.
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There are obviously maps with a large inherent partisan advantage (like those in Wisconsin) but the Virginia story is an incumbency story, not a gerrymandering story.
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I asked Nick Stephanopoulos for his response to this and he wrote this:pic.twitter.com/F3sfsRw9rD
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The fact that Northam won 58 House districts is also kind of irrelevant without context. For all we know, he may have won *more* without GOP gerrymandering
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Illinois GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner won 58% of state House districts in 2014 when he won by 4% statewide, yet nobody in their right mind would say that gerrymandering doesn't benefit Dems there compared to nonpartisan maps
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The results also weigh against this. The GOP almost certainly would've lost the Senate while winning the House had both chambers been up on Tuesday, given the Senate map & how Dems did in GOP seats Clinton won (the Senate has 4)https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/929046473626468352 …
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