Rick HasenVerified account

#ELB: Breaking: #SCOTUS Declines Soft Money Case; Thomas and Gorsuch Would Vote to Hear http://electionlawblog.org/?p=92665 

Some thoughts on this surprising development 1. This case was up on appeal not cert, meaning it made it very likely the Court would take it

2. The fact that only two Justices (Gorsuch and Thomas) would have heard the case meant Alito, Kennedy and Roberts likely did not

3. The likeliest explanation is that they've had enough campaign finance for a while and want to use their capital elsewhere, e.g., abortion

4. But this says a lot about Gorsuch (a) he's not shy; (b) he may be as big a campaign finance opponent as Justice Thomas

5. In short term, affirmance good news for campaign finance reformers. Not only is soft money upheld, but no new rule on contribution limits

6. A contrary ruling in soft money case could have called all individual contribution limits into question.

7. But today's ruling exacerbates disparity between political party limited contributions and unlimited super pacs and 501c4s.