Only plausible sequence change is if minors’ preferences lift either of J-LM or FF into 2nd place over MLPen; but EM still wins anyway.
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... 4th doesn’t seriously preference to the other, so final two remain MLP and EM; EM still wins.
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Longer answer: as minor lefts and rights get eliminated J-LM and FF might reorder for 3rd/4th places, but whichever gets eliminated at ...
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... others 1:1 (Condorcet winner), so EM would win.
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French round 1 as IRV? - Short answer: hard to conceive that prefs could lift two other cands above EM, and per polling EM beats all ...
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