Rick HasenVerified account

That would allow 9th Circuit to put issue off until ruling on preliminary injunction order, which is briefing now in district court (/2)

That briefingi in the district court now set to conclude on 2/17, and we can expect a ruling not too long after that (/3)

Pretty good bet that district court will issue a preliminary injunction like the TRO, but offering substantive reasons for decision (/4)

That preliminary injunction order could be appealed to motions panel (might not be same one?---need to check w 9th Circuit gurus) (/5)

Whoever loses today faces the question of seeking to go to #SCOTUS now or to wait for preliminary inj. process to go through (/6)

Appealing to SCOTUS means fighting a technical battle on whether order is appealable before fighting merits (/7)

Still, w such a high profile national case and with tremendous disruption if we go on-again-off-again with EO, I expect SCOTUS try now (/8)

The other complication of course is that SCOTUS is divided 4-4 conservatives/liberals. Technical issue can give basis for ct. to duck (/9)

On the other hand, given disruption, national interest, and knowledge that case is coming back, maybe the Ct. would reach merits now (/10)

And it puts SCOTUS in the hot seat with a president maligning judiciary and the Court's deciding member preparing for confirmation. (/11)

That's not the ideal place for the Court to be, and whatever institutional pressure the Chief can bring for consensus would be brought (/12)

Normal times might counsel against appealing TRO further, waiting for fuller record on preliminary injunction. But not normal times (13/13)

Prediction in plain English: if gov't loses on technicality, it likely goes to #SCOTUS, where there will be great pressure to rule same way

With respect, a version of this thread in plain English?