Forecaster gets points for the certainty of their correct state forecasts and penalty for over-certainty of incorrect ones
Thing about the Nate Silver debate is that, if Clinton wins, how would we know if Nate or other more pro-Clinton models were right?
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the probability percentage the 538 forecast shows reflects a difference in the margin of victory, right
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@rickhasen by looking at which model has the lowest aggregate measure of error in the various state popular vote estimatesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Wait. What?
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They don't explain how they incorporate
#VoterSupression/ElectionFraud i.e. black box fraud#s in their calculations@BuzzFlashThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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doesn't Nate have one of the more pro-Trump models?
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N is too small to make a conclusion over one election cycle. (And I'm not sure how many cycles you need, because correlated.)
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@rickhasen The heavy early vote states will tell us whether focusing on EV or polls makes most sense, cf. 538 on NV and NC.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Look at the final electoral vote estimates at
@FiveThirtyEight and the final pop vote estimate. That's the closest you'll getThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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size of win
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margin will be at least somewhat telling
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because the
@FiveThirtyEight model also gives voting percentages you can measure how closely his model matched election totalsThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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