I've now posted my full analysis of 485-page NC voting rights decision. Appeal could succeed, but not certain: http://electionlawblog.org/?p=82224 /1
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It is a careful, erudite, and controversial opinion by a thoughtful judge, but one predisposed to be skeptical of plaintiffs' claims /2
and a judge predisposed to accept NC's reasons for passing its restrictive voting laws, mostly ignoring the partisan context /3
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the tenuousness of the state's interest in the law is the law's greatest weakness, and best grounds for 4th circuit appeal /4
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but, appellate courts will have to follow judge's factual findings, which are very bad for plaintiffs, unless findings clearly erroneous /5
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quite possible a D-leaning 4th circuit panel reverses NC voting decision at least in part, then
#SCOTUS could divide 4-4. What a mess! /6
End of conversation
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