@rickhasen I'm assuming Vitter is going to win comfortably.
Any reason to think the polls in #LAGov are more accurate than other recent polling?
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@SethBurn@rickhasen If Vitter keeps it within 10 points I'll kiss my own ass. -
@SethBurn@rickhasen I better start cleaning my backside
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@rickhasen definitely not--not particularly trust-inspiring firms or press releases. But consistently double digit leads not like KY -
@rickhasen and as@ElectProject is saying, early voting doesn't signal Dem are in for turnout pbs, tho of course we can't be sure till Sat - 1 more reply
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@rickhasen early voting higher turnout and more reg Ds than 1st round; if were in other direction, I'd be more distrusting of polling -
@rickhasen also, we have more polls and more recent showing a +11 Edwards lead, unlike +2 lead for Conway -
@ElectProject@rickhasen that's pretty partisan of you to be un-trusting of the results based on affiliation -
@NelsonMRosario@rickhasen Math is not partisan. Statistically, a +11 polling lead is more likely a real lead than a +2 lead -
@NelsonMRosario@rickhasen plus, there is more polling in LA than in KY from which to draw inferences, further strengthening signal
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