Actually it's not unexpected! In December @metoffice forecast "2017: another very warm year for global temperatures" http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/global-forecast-2017 …https://twitter.com/thinkprogress/status/887701853164765186 …
Here's the @metoffice global temperature forecast for 2017 (green dot, plus error bars) alongside obs up to 2016. (h/t @hausfath for figure)pic.twitter.com/J6SY4dN1Qw
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my bad. Tweet deleted. I misread what I was looking at.
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ok I wondered why twitter wouldn't let me reply!
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Pretty good prediction so far! (using NOAA's data since Hadley hasn't released June temps yet):pic.twitter.com/p6UJcsv9P4
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Note that predicted 2017 temps here are estimated using the relationship between the first 6 months and annual temps for NOAA since 1950 1/2
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Is that an error bar or an estimate of the possible variance in the coming six months?
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As its a statistically based forecast its a forecast expected error / uncertainty and its that value at time of issue last Nov/Dec
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Should use WMO average for obs (like
@MetOffice) or ensemble of available obs series (better IMHO). Then compare to full coverage models.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@hausfath can i please have a citation for this graph (if it is in a paper somewhere!) thx lenny -
Here's a paper we wrote with the methodology behind the comparison: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL064888/abstract …
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