First: yes. The #VAGov polls are very close. If you are surprised by this, you might be relatively new to following Virginia politics.
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Y'all mind if this Virginian muses a little on the #VAGov race while I unwind from a long day? No? Cool.https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/920333715384942592 …
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VA is one of 2 states that elects governors the year after presidential elex, AND we have a 1-term limit. Always close; turnout often low.
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2013, after Obama's reelection, was the first time in 36 years Virginia elected a governor of the same party as the just-elected President.
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In 2013, Terry McAuliffe squeaked past (hard-line tea party conservative and at the time VA Atty General) Ken Cuccinelli to pull off a win.
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Lotta folks at the time thought The Cooch's loss was a death knell for the Tea Party in purplish states, which of course wasn't so.
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Anyway. Corey Stewart, a Confederate nostalgia whore from Minnesota, almost beat Ed Gillespie in the June GOP primary, running on racism.
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Gillespie took a lesson from Stewart: his recent ads and mailers follow the same racist, fearmongering blueprint. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/10/ed_gillespie_is_attempting_a_trump_maneuver_in_virginia.html …
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What Gillespie does scarily well: pander to racist whites in southern VA while cleaning up well enough to appeal to affluent NoVA whites.
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There are plenty of GOP-leaning NoVA voters who hate Trump, but see Gillespie as a "traditional" Repub, and have no issue voting for him.
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Also important: this isn't Gillespie's first VA rodeo. He almost unseated Mark Warner in 2014. Warner (a popular incumbent) held on by 0.8%.
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So, yes - concern is warranted, as it *always* is in VA statewide races. Panic, however, is not. We'll calmly work our asses off until 11/7.
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Why panic is unwarranted, part 1: not so sure about the makeup of that alarming Monmouth poll.https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/920341592074084354 …
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That poll, & several others, assume drops in D turnout that aren't supported by our own primary or national trends. https://twitter.com/matt_hamblin/status/920412324963418112 …
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And Virginia has new help in 2017.
@NextGenAmerica has registered 20k new voters in VA for this election! 20,000!https://twitter.com/NextGenAmerica/status/920434657199452160 …Show this thread -
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@LetAmericaVote has had field teams knocking doors here, and has held ongoing phone bank & postcard campaigns.https://twitter.com/letamericavote/status/917096300402892803 …
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And Northam's campaign has hundreds of dedicated, passionate staff & volunteers who will leave no door unknocked for the next 3 weeks.
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So yes, we're concerned. No, we aren't complacent. We in VA will be giving this our all until Election Day. Help us. https://www.letamericavote.org/landing/social-170925-northam-calls/ …
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End of conversation
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