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reluctantlyjoe's profile
joseph osmundson (all pronouns)
joseph osmundson (all pronouns)
joseph osmundson (all pronouns)
@reluctantlyjoe

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joseph osmundson (all pronouns)

@reluctantlyjoe

scientist, writer, activist. second least funny co-host of @food4thotpod writer at @wwnorton VIROLOGY available for pre-sale now at http://josephosmundson.com 

New York, NY
josephosmundson.com
Joined November 2013

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      So, I'm not going to tag all the folks I've had disagreements with for *months* now, since December, who didn't believe me that our bungled messaging on post-vaccine transmission was fueling vaccine hesitancy. 😬How many examples have we heard now? I hear this every single day. https://t.co/AmOgwNgx39 

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      73 replies 503 retweets 2,557 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      To make it clear, the remedy isn't to give false or unsubstantiated hope, but to get out of the "we don't know" trap when we *do* have some sense of the direction, but need more clarity with data (which we can say), and also to emphasize the real upside!

      13 replies 44 retweets 581 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 Feb 2021

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted joseph osmundson (all pronouns)

      See what people accuse me of, when I make the most basic point? That I suggested that we "just lie to people", or "express certainty about something we don't know." Exactly the problem that I'm talking about.https://twitter.com/reluctantlyjoe/status/1359333090573881350 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      joseph osmundson (all pronouns) @reluctantlyjoe
      great so then let's just lie to people and express certainty about something we don't know that will definitely help us in the long run 🙃🙃🙃 https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1359328328264658949 …
      9 replies 13 retweets 349 likes
      Show this thread
    4. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @zeynep

      ummmmmmmmmm expressing that we're confident about transmission based on current data is actually lying. we are not.

      5 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Matthew Noah Smith‏ @MattNoahSmith 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @zeynep

      there is a huge difference between "We are certain that infections are prevented by the vaccine" and "We are very hopeful that infections are prevented by the vaccine and that's reason enough for everyone to get that vaccine."

      1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
    6. James Bender‏ @jbender22 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @MattNoahSmith @reluctantlyjoe @zeynep

      And it’s actually more like “We are nearly certain that vaccines prevent transmission. We are testing to figure out exactly how much.” Right?

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
    7. Matthew Noah Smith‏ @MattNoahSmith 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @jbender22 @reluctantlyjoe @zeynep

      Strikes me that the specific phrasing matters less than the sentiment. After all the sentiment is what is transmitted through informal networks. The sentiment should link vaccination w/ increased capacities to do all the things that bring us joy, but that we haven't been doing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    8. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @MattNoahSmith @jbender22 @zeynep

      THANKS i agree – the upsides of vaccination are so incredible and massive that we don't need to stretch what we currently know to sell them

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. Matthew Noah Smith‏ @MattNoahSmith 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @jbender22 @zeynep

      Yes but this also allows expressing hope that vaccination will limit transmission. Hope for a better, easier future is what gets people out of the reasonable suspicion and daily habits that make getting vaccinated less likely. It's as much an emotional appeal, as a rational one.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
      Replying to @MattNoahSmith @jbender22 @zeynep

      i'm great with HOPE! i love HOPE! and yet it's critically important that – while vaccines are scarce – we stay the course on NPIs, vaccinated or not. *that* messaging is actually hard. People are gonna wanna get the shot and go wild! And – for a million reasons – we can't do that

      7:16 PM - 9 Feb 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • Bryce Lathrop Krissy Klabacha Frank Immunity DX
      6 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. James Bender‏ @jbender22 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @MattNoahSmith @zeynep

          Genuine question. Would we be better off with an increase in vaccine hesitancy and an increase (or maintenance) of mitigation? Or more people getting a vaccine but also many more giving up on mitigation? I would assume the latter, but that might be wrong?

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Julian‏ @julianlewis2012 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @jbender22 @reluctantlyjoe and

          I firmly believe the latter would make us better off, and I even more firmly believe that this is, in fact, the choice we will have. We can’t maintain maximum enthusiasm for getting vaccinated and for refraining from hugging Mom. Can’t meaningfully sustain both of those ideas.

          0 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Matthew Noah Smith‏ @MattNoahSmith 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @jbender22 @zeynep

          For someone so committed to evidence, please supply the evidence that telling people that getting vaccinated will probably lower the likelihood that they will infect others will, like some pneumatic press, drive them to go wild?

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
        3. joseph osmundson (all pronouns)‏ @reluctantlyjoe 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @MattNoahSmith @jbender22 @zeynep

          wait you don't think it's a reasonable assumption that telling people vaccination protects against transmission and disease will lead to people using masks and other NPIs less often? alas, i don't think we have data either way (hello pandemic), but that's a reasonable assumption

          3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Drew Miller‏ @Guncle_Drew 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @MattNoahSmith and

          Will somebody tell him?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Drew Miller‏ @Guncle_Drew 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @MattNoahSmith and

          After receiving the 2nd dose of the vaccine and then waiting patiently for 2 weeks, can we keep ours mask in our pockets “just in case we need them” instead of our face? Asking for a friend.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. science lover‏ @PolyEyebrow 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @Guncle_Drew @reluctantlyjoe and

          Yes.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. science lover‏ @PolyEyebrow 9 Feb 2021
          Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @MattNoahSmith and

          Of course we can. South Dakota already did.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Adam Kolar  🔰 🧦‏ @akanoego 10 Feb 2021
          Replying to @reluctantlyjoe @MattNoahSmith and

          I'm much more afraid of people giving up on vaccines than getting vaccinated and going wild.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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