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I assume Trump will lose. But it’s a mistake to lose sight of the fact that right now the ultimate determinate of outcomes is volatility. Biden has been coy about his position on the anarchy playing out in cities. If things continue to escalate volatility may put Trump ahead.
The campaign hasn't even begun. Everything changes after the conventions. It's going to get intense, quickly. And I'm looking forward to it. Huge unknowns.
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