"The initial IHME model underestimates the uncertainty surrounding the number of daily deaths substantially. The true number of next day deaths fell outside the prediction intervals as much as 70% of the time, in comparison to the expected value of 5%."https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04734
Replying to @aginnt
We're 95 percent confident that we're 70 percent wrong.
7:32 PM - 26 May 2020
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