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Exactly. We are making decisions in the fog. Will be interesting to see the analysis a year from now.
Personally, I read the "quarantine now" people like Nassim Taleb and Joe Norman and find it persuasive, then read the "open up now" people like Berenson and Ginn and find some of their points persuasive, too. This doesn't seem to be an easy "follow the data" situation.
This is a very hard decision and it will require determined leadership willing to take risks and accept the consequences.
The two positions (all stay at home vs. only high-risk, so economic activity can resume more quickly) are in tension with each other, but we all have a stake in both. It would require Solomon with all his wisdom, plus a crystal ball, to get it 'exactly right,' whatever that is.
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