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What drives up the difficulty is the _value_ of BTC, which attracts more miners to compete for the same fixed supply. The periodic halving of block rewards _reduces_ energy use by making mining less attractive.
So you are disagreeing with the claim that it will continue to increase energy use long term bc people will stop mining (eventually). Is there evidence that people are stopping? My guess is the more likely outcome would be the use of renewable to continue to mine.
As the paper that started this story explains (and it's not as bad as I suggested, the idiocy was in the reporting), in the equilibrium in aggregate people spend as much money on mining as the mined bitcoin are worth...
The number of bitcoin mined is on a declining path, and does not depend on the behaviour of miners. The current cost of mining is, per the paper, currently 60-70% cost of electricity. So the major determinants of electricity use are cost of electricity and price of BTC.
You can see a graph of the aggregate "amount of mining done" (in effect), which is basically electricity used x energy-efficiency of hardware (which is increasing). It generally goes up, but is volatile.https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate …
Thanks for these.
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