Max Castle

Maybe now is a good time to distinguish between someone who is good at statistics, and someone who is good at statistics for a journalist?

you mean like when Nate Silver told everyone that HC was not a runaway winner?

That's not really my point, tho. My point is that there are open questions about what %s even refer to w/unrepeatable events

Maybe, but I suspicious of any argument that assumes humans are unique little snowflakes and that behavior can't be predicted.

As I said, the theory behind probability has been pursued by everyone from Leibniz to Keynes to Heisenberg

Not sure the theory of the monad is going to get us there.

Um, Leibniz created calculus, dude, and the modern concept ofprobability