Rukmini Callimachi
3. The claim was issued in Arabic, English and French. See screengrab below archived by @MichaelSSmithIIpic.twitter.com/yitR8FNYZl
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6. When ISIS stormed a cafe in Bangladesh on July 1, it took around 5 hours for group to take credit. Brussels airport was roughly same
7. Most of the attacks they carried out in last year took less than 1 day, including Metrojet crash over Sinai on Oct 31 and Paris on Nov 13
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8. Even attacks they inspired rather than directed, like 6/12 shooting at an Orlando nightclub took significantly less: Just 12 hrs to claim
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9. In terms of time of claim, this is most similar to San Bernardino which took between 1-2 days, occurring on Dec 4, claimed late on Dec 5
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11. Take Orlando, where they claimed the attack even before it had been widely reported that Omar Mateen had pledged allegiance to ISIS
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12. So if we use time of claim as a metric for how clued in ISIS is to a given operation, Nice falls on the outer perimeter.
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13. Now lets look at language of claim, which has more in common with attacks carried out by ISIS operatives, rather than sympathizers
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15. That terminology, a soldier of the Islamic State, is what they use for their own operatives. Paris/Brussels attackers described as such
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16. Compare that to what they used for San Bernardino attackers, whom they called "supporters." See
@siteintelgrouppic.twitter.com/04IkXZcFHg
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17. No evidence has emerged of driver's radicalization. The French Interior Minister said it appeared he had become an extremist quickly.
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@rcallimachi Understandable! Erdogan was busy .
Chanakya
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