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rcallimachi's profile
Rukmini Callimachi
Rukmini Callimachi
Rukmini Callimachi
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@rcallimachi

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Rukmini CallimachiVerified account

@rcallimachi

Correspondent for The New York Times covering ISIS and violent extremism. @NBC analyst. Previously, seven years in West Africa. Ex-AP bureau chief. Ex-refugee.

New York, New York
topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/…
Joined April 2009

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    Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

    1. I’ve had a chance to check in with sources, including two US officials who had intelligence briefings after the strike on Suleimani. Here is what I’ve learned. According to them, the evidence suggesting there was to be an imminent attack on American targets is “razor thin”.

    3:27 AM - 4 Jan 2020
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    6,901 replies 42,488 retweets 86,996 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        2. In fact the evidence pointing to that came as three discrete facts: a) A pattern of travel showing Suleimani was in Syria, Lebanon & Iraq to meet with Shia proxies known to have an offensive position to the US. (As one source said that’s just “business as usual” for Suleimani)

        369 replies 3,644 retweets 15,672 likes
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      3. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        3. More intriguing was b) information indicating Suleimani sought the Supreme Leader’s approval for an operation. He was told to come to Tehran for consultation and further guidance, suggesting the operation was a big deal - but again this could be anything.

        183 replies 2,972 retweets 13,120 likes
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      4. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        4. And finally, a) and b) were read in the context of c) Iran’s increasingly bellicose position towards American interests in Iraq, including the attack that killed a U.S. contractor and the recent protest outside the American embassy.

        196 replies 2,702 retweets 11,946 likes
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      5. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        5. But as one source put it a) + b) + c) is hardly evidence of an imminent attack on American interests that could kill hundreds, as the White House has since claimed. The official describes the reading of the intelligence as an illogical leap.

        291 replies 4,599 retweets 18,965 likes
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      6. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        6. One official described the planning for the strike as chaotic. The official says that following the attack on an Iraqi base which killed an American contractor circa Dec. 27, Trump was presented a menu of options for how to retaliate. Killing Suleimani was the “far out option”

        261 replies 4,115 retweets 14,905 likes
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      7. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        7. Trump chose a more moderate option which involved the Dec. 29 strikes on the positions of an Iranian-backed militia. Then came the protest at the gates of the US embassy in Baghdad: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/12/29/world/middleeast/29reuters-iraq-security-usa.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share …

        188 replies 2,554 retweets 10,813 likes
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      8. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        8. It was after the embassy protests that the president, according to one US official, chose the Suleimani option, but the problem at that point in time is that American intelligence did not know his precise whereabouts. They scrambled to locate him, says the official.

        158 replies 2,701 retweets 11,168 likes
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      9. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        9. According to the official, the strike on Suleimani was pulled together so quickly that initially the US was not sure PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was in the convoy. He was also killed and is also viewed as an Iranian proxy:pic.twitter.com/G61UriHFeT

        103 replies 2,729 retweets 10,717 likes
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      10. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        10. Since the strike, Iran has convened its national security chiefs. Chatter intercepted by American intelligence indicates they’re considering a range of options. Cyberattacks, attacks on oil facilities and American personnel and diplomatic outposts have all been cited so far.

        139 replies 3,552 retweets 12,203 likes
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      11. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        11. But among the “menu options” that I had not heard before were: (1) kidnapping and execution of American citizens. (This might explain why the State Department has ordered the evacuation of all US citizens in Iraq, not just government and embassy employees).pic.twitter.com/SmSxQHxsk1

        158 replies 3,455 retweets 11,631 likes
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      12. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        12. Another is attacks on American diplomatic and military outposts not just in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, but as far afield as UAE and Bahrain. The official I spoke to was particularly concerned for American troops stationed in Iraq, some of whom are co-located with Shia militias

        90 replies 2,802 retweets 10,938 likes
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      13. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        13. How does this impact the war against ISIS? I turned to @Mikeknightsiraq for insight. He’s studied Iraq since the 1990s. What he told me is that months before the strike that killed Suleimani, the tensions with Iran had already degraded America’s ability to fight ISIS in Iraq:

        73 replies 2,704 retweets 10,726 likes
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      14. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        14. In 2019, America has been denied airspace and access to operations in Iraq to go after ISIS at the behest of Iran-backed groups. The US has also been told to stop communicating with Sunni tribes. These are important setbacks that have already weakened the US’ posture in Iraq

        79 replies 2,610 retweets 10,536 likes
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      15. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        15. “It’s all been downhill,” @Mikeknightsiraq told me, in terms of America’s access to the ISIS battlespace in recent months due to Iranian pressure on Iraqi officials. One upshot? US special operations forces have been on the offensive in Diyala, Nineveh and Kirkuk provinces

        55 replies 2,050 retweets 9,103 likes
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      16. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        16. A likely outcome of the recent strike is that small, out-of-the-way outposts for special operations forces will be deemed too vulnerable and will be eliminated. Fighting ISIS is no longer the priority if the outer wall of the US embassy is being attacked.

        112 replies 2,517 retweets 10,595 likes
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      17. Rukmini Callimachi‏Verified account @rcallimachi Jan 4

        17. Before I go back to the pool let me just say the obvious: No one’s trying to downplay Suleimani’s crimes. The question is why now? His whereabouts have been known before. His resume of killing-by-proxy is not a secret. Hard to decouple his killing from the impeachment saga.

        3,717 replies 11,163 retweets 41,665 likes
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      18. End of conversation

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