1/n One of @gwern's best essays ever is a review of a book nobody has ever heard of.
It's about looking into the future, seeing exactly what awaits us, and being unable to capitalize on this knowledge, because you only know *what* will be and not *when* it will be.
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2/n "one quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, but X was off by a few years & jumped the gun & so Z was the person who wound up taking all the spoils."pic.twitter.com/ze2ZMAikBU
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3/n "A good idea will draw overly-optimistic entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant."pic.twitter.com/5oLaX8nxh3
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4/n and what if you realize that the time for the technology you're in love with has not come yet? If you thought "change the field" —you got it wrong. You continue working on it for many years without end in sight...pic.twitter.com/a4loh9HiAU
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More to it than that, of course. There’s tenacity (which gives you a wider time window). There’s practical experience in multiple specialties (which means you don’t have to wait for other people’s work there). Etc.
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