There's a much simpler way to identify the weak spot in this modeling work: in the range of scenarios, the date of the peak is more or less fixed, while in reality that's the single biggest thing we don't know.https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243844617986019330 …
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Obviously not to take away from the brilliant near real time peer review of Dr. Bergstrom, his analysis is of course authoritative. I'm just trying to extract the seed for a curious but lay audience, because I *know* they'll be citing this work a lot.
8:21 AM - 28 Mar 2020
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