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rachel_elisse's profile
Dr. Rachel Coleman
Dr. Rachel Coleman
Dr. Rachel Coleman
@rachel_elisse

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Dr. Rachel Coleman

@rachel_elisse

Child advocate, research analyst. PhD in U.S. history with a focus on children and childhood. Mother of two.

Chicago
Joined September 2014

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    Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

    Guys. Guys. I am seeing people asking why we locked down if the lockdown is slowing our ability to get herd immunity. But herd immunity, absent a vaccine, was never the goal! If we reach herd immunity, it will mean we failed. It would mean 2 million people had died. 1/

    9:24 AM - 27 Apr 2020
    • 6,562 Retweets
    • 27,319 Likes
    • Rebecca White Sienna Sutton sansevieria46 Mary Gregory (12mths no💆🏼‍♀️ 💇🏼‍♀️) Stephen #FBPA #FBPE #FBPEGlobal #FBPPR Jasmine the European Cat HREmpress🌈💙🇺🇸 Escape Velocity... sssh I 'neeked out again Stephanie🏁
    260 replies 6,562 retweets 27,319 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        To get to herd immunity, AT LEAST 60% would have to have had COVID. (And that assumes having it conveys immunity.) If we assume a 1% fatality rate — which is right in the middle of the 0.6% to 1.5% range most experts have suggested — that is two million people dead. 2/

        33 replies 469 retweets 3,495 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        The point of lockdowns was to AVOID this. Absent a vaccine, herd immunity is NOT THE GOAL. Why? Because herd immunity, absent a vaccine, requires millions of deaths. And unless you staff nursing homes with robots — and that is just the start — you CAN’T shield the vulnerable. 3/

        14 replies 592 retweets 4,098 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        Complaining that the lockdowns are preventing us from getting to herd immunity amounts to complaining that lives are being saved. Absent a vaccine, getting to herd immunity and saving lives are incompatible. We locked down to save lives. 4/

        6 replies 651 retweets 3,912 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        We locked down to prevent to virus from running through our populace, bc that would mean an untold loss of life, and now people are complaining that ... the virus is not running through our populace. What. Nothing has changed! It’s still deadly! That’s why we locked down! 5/

        9 replies 374 retweets 2,926 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        Let me add one thing. NYC has gotten to an infection rate of 20% — a third of what we need to have herd immunity — and that has cost nearly 20,000 lives. Getting to 60% would mean another 40,000 dead in NYC. That is not something anyone should want. 6/

        7 replies 400 retweets 2,809 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        Absent a vaccine, making herd immunity our goal means accepting that millions of people will die. I’m not willing to accept that. I still think we can save many of those lives. How? By slowing the virus’ transmission until we have a vaccine. 7/

        6 replies 310 retweets 2,500 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        The goal of the current lockdown is to flatten the curve both to prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed AND to bring the number of infections down to a level where we can control infections through a process referred to as test, trace, isolate. 8/

        7 replies 321 retweets 2,430 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        Maybe the focus on flattening the curve meant there wasn't enough focus on the reason WHY. It was NEVER about preventing our healthcare system from being overwhelmed so that the virus could go through our populace more slowly until we get to herd immunity. 9/

        10 replies 196 retweets 1,952 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        The goal is not just to protect our healthcare system but ALSO to bring the infection rate down so that we can have a shot at that rate low for the next year or more, until we have a vaccine. Test trace isolate doesn't work when we have millions of infections at the start. 10/

        6 replies 229 retweets 2,039 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        Last thing to note: there are some who argue that the virus is less deadly than thought, perhaps no more deadly than the flu. If that were the case, it might make sense to let the virus go. But that also flies in the face of the evidence. 11/

        8 replies 170 retweets 1,787 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        NYC already has a death rate of 0.2%, twice the rate of the flu, FOR THE ENTIRE POPULATION of the city. Bc antibody tests suggest only 20% has been infected, you need to multiply that rate by 5. If every New Yorker caught this, 1 in 100 people IN THE ENTIRE CITY would die. /12

        22 replies 272 retweets 1,974 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Dr. Rachel Coleman‏ @rachel_elisse 27 Apr 2020

        I get that people want to believe this isn't that deadly so that we can go back to normal, but you can't gaslight a virus. Our options haven't changed -- lock down until case counts are down and then find a new normal with longterm social distancing, or let millions die. /13

        74 replies 508 retweets 3,077 likes
        Show this thread
      14. End of conversation

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