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It is possible that "S. W." indicates "Smith & Wesson", Grampa's gun which is seen earlier, and to which numerous characters have access - but only one shot was heard, and we already ruled this firearm out, above.
At this point in The Simpsons' run, there are several characters who definitely had these initials (and who appeared in this episode): * Waylon Smithers * Marge Simpson * Moe Szyslak (his surname was revealed for the first time in this episode) * ...
* Principal W. Seymour Skinner (first initial revealed for the first and only time in this episode) * Sideshow Mel * Santa's Little Helper (whom Burns refers to as "Simpson mutt" earlier in the episode) * Maggie Simpson
Still with me here? * Smithers has a cast-iron alibi - he was watching "Pardon My Zinger" at 3pm * Marge is on camera at the time of the shooting. This is enough for us as viewers * Sideshow Mel's weapon of choice is a flick-knife, which potentially rules him out as a shooter
Now let's re-examine the town hall seen. "Oh, you all talk big," Burns says, "but who here has the guts to stop me?"
Moe and Skinner and many other of the main suspects don't have the guts to even look Burns in the eye. There's only one character in this pan who does.pic.twitter.com/cjCIIWYpOE
So. If we've settled on Burns being shot with his own weapon, the "I think you'd better drop it..." dialogue is puzzling. What, if not a gun, was the assailant carrying, and why did Burns want them to drop it?
Earlier in the episode we saw Burns express his love for taking candy from a baby. Maggie's a baby, she must have had candy. The pieces fit!
MARGE: He's causing us all to yell! MAGGIE: [angry pacifier sucking noises] Maggie had motive! She knew what she was doing! She shot him on purpose!pic.twitter.com/oK4WQ8Pwz9
Several insane wildcard theories also made the rounds, most memorably the "Superdude theory" which suggests that Burns was somehow shot by the Springfield Elementary hamster who is found dead at the beginning of the episode
There is also this shot of a mysterious individual, whose face is never shown, stroking a gun. As far as I can tell this is not a known/named character, and they are not seen in the episode outside of this one shotpic.twitter.com/d5VWP21Kgs
This mystery was so good that in Fox's contest to identify the shooter, out of the 1000 randomly-chosen entries from which the winner was to be picked, *none* of them had correctly named Maggie
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