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I'm pretty sure Avatar is only not "popular" because 3D TVs didn't work out and Cameron delayed the sequel.
3D was always a gimmick. But your second point is exactly correct. We only care about Avatar when there's an Avatar movie being marketed at us. Absolutely nobody actually wants that sequel
How does it get made, then? Cheaper to spend $150M on marketing to turn a film into a $3B movie than to spend $??M to figure out what people want and $<150M to market it? Or maybe there isn't any movie audiences want to the tune of $3B unless you make them want it?
I don't think it's all that clear-cut, but yeah, no movie this side of hyperinflation gets to three billion dollars via word of mouth alone
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