Tweets
- Tweets, current page.
- Tweets & replies
- Media
You blocked @PTetlock
Are you sure you want to view these Tweets? Viewing Tweets won't unblock @PTetlock
-
I'm reasonably confident that Ian's "reasonable confidence" means roughly 60-80%, which is less vague than a lot of vague-verbiage forecasts. The clearer you make your forecasts, the easier it is to spot mistakes & become better calibratedhttps://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1222501147765809154 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Let’s lock in a mutual-admiration triad: I think very highly of both Tim’s and Matthew’s work. And we are not only complimentary. We are complementary. Read us to discover why
@matthewsyed@TimHarfordpic.twitter.com/dr0A1zur1i
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Philip E. Tetlock Retweeted
Totally agree with
@TimHarford. It’s a superb bookhttps://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/1221208123362295808 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Feuds between rival methods can be productive. But I see polling & prediction markets as each adding forecasting value. And here is some evidence of how these methods can complement each other: http://journal.sjdm.org/18/18919/jdm18919.pdf …pic.twitter.com/9I7csEgBfD
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
This superb article illustrates critical-reasoning skills that are also at the heart of the “superforecasting” research program. We’re all aiming at the same cognitive target: https://warontherocks.com/2020/01/the-pitfalls-and-possibilities-of-the-measurement-revolution-for-national-security/ …
@WarOnTheRockshttps://twitter.com/WarOnTheRocks/status/1219600560107802624 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Business as usual at Davos: 1.The higher the status of forecasters, the vaguer their forecasts; 2.The more politicized the topic, the vaguer the forecasts; 3.The higher the stakes, the fewer the chances to learn from big shots' forecasting mistakeshttps://twitter.com/wfrhatch/status/1219368576458592257 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
in that case, it's also "official" that the World Economic Forum needs a remedial course in Research Methods. Correlation doesn't "mean" causality--and that is even true for claims that are pitch perfect for corporate PR purposes.https://twitter.com/wef/status/1215566526620798976 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Memory lane: my first grad-school publication (1977) & basic finding holds up fairly well. Rising or falling integrative complexity of messaging predicts which crises escalate into violence. Credit: my first mentor, Peter Suedfeld.https://twitter.com/deepwatrcreatur/status/1216657303581216769 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
“Superforecasters” did so well in tournaments because our scientific competitors were allergic to the cognitive elitism of tracking above-average people into superteams. Tracking had exactly the inequality-amplifying effect that egalitarians fear tracking in schools will havepic.twitter.com/vGgWuhywmj
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Here’s a robust psychological effect that does not wilt under replication scrutiny. Kurt Lewin noticed it in the 1930s: making public commitments “freezes” attitudes in place. So saying something dumb makes you a bit dumber. It becomes harder to correct yourself. Tweeters beware.pic.twitter.com/cXoujA4VUY
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
How to save lives and money: Define forecasting accuracy as skill at achieving both a high Hit rate & low False-Positive rate. It’s trivially easy to claim you can predict every recession, war,… when no one is tracking your False-Positive rate.pic.twitter.com/0j7gPo4Bj0
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
We love turning points. Would China have grown faster, slower, or about the same in a world in which the Politburo liberals had prevailed? No one knows for sure but we can be pretty darn sure what current Politburo thinks
@ianbremmerhttps://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1211243213023072256 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
A thoughtful effort to anticipate key themes in the 2020s. Unfortunately, its first falsifiable forecast is false. People often over-predict change (e.g., Ch. 2, Expert Political Judgment). One reason: we get more credit for correctly predicting change than the boring status quohttps://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1210931176212516864 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Giant oaks from tiny acorns grow—& we still haven’t figured out how to spot which acorns will dominate our future (and we probably never will) The tweet below nails ithttps://twitter.com/notjessewalker/status/1210967166004219904 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Very readable article on a very tricky topic: when do we have good grounds for believing something?
@briandavidearphttps://twitter.com/briandavidearp/status/1098803533716078593 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Vague-verbiage forecasts plant a jumble of probabilities in our minds that easily sum to < or > 1.0. So 2020 “could be” 1.Xi’s worst year (say 20%-80% range) http://2.best year (say 10-40%) 3.a mix of successes & setbacks (say10-70%) Why not just give your best guess?pic.twitter.com/A3qNqKeIh3
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
It looks like cost-free tomfoolery—but it's really costly. It means alpha-pundits have no incentive to become more accurate—& lower-status challengers, who got it right sooner, have no chance to be noticedhttps://twitter.com/patricksturg/status/1207948358406594561 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
"Superforecasters" are better at tuning in signals—& tuning out noise. It’s not the millions of words had no effect. They had lots of effects, mostly tiny offsetting ones
@ezrakleinpic.twitter.com/7ugPxaFKLJ
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
So true—but also so much easier to agree in principle than to implement in practice. We swoon to the rhetoric of open-mindedness but our true love is the comfy familiarity of closed-mindednesshttps://twitter.com/AnnieDuke/status/1206595051985473541 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Stereotypical Brit under-statement: it's a great podcast. Tim teaches me how to teach (and i'm not just saying that because he occasionally teaches my stuff)
@TimHarford@dgardner https://twitter.com/TimHarford/status/1205857212398260224 …This Tweet is unavailable.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
The one certainty is that things will change more than we tend to assume.